Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


Return to catchment list
Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1074.810109.843
2051.39664.231
3039.28345.025
4030.72332.244
5024.54224.032
6019.64517.461
7015.43812.909
8011.3249.074
906.9335.531

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1181.630404.462
2145.443271.561
3124.061230.669
4113.135201.658
5103.317181.717
694.088158.021
789.022142.957
883.580129.930
979.156118.087
1074.810109.843
1171.934103.403
1268.36296.708
1365.80991.836
1463.46887.117
1560.84282.215
1658.47478.531
1756.41274.314
1854.37570.224
1952.89066.813
2051.39664.231
2150.09561.801
2248.62359.081
2347.52857.385
2446.13954.829
2545.01153.310
2643.69352.016
2742.43350.033
2841.23448.509
2940.20346.865
3039.28345.025
3138.44543.428
3237.47641.788
3336.44540.559
3435.59439.425
3534.80637.797
3634.00336.586
3733.23035.368
3832.44034.283
3931.52133.385
4030.72332.244
4130.13331.160
4229.34030.389
4328.67029.726
4428.11228.858
4527.47728.089
4626.82327.223
4726.26126.489
4825.61825.520
4925.15724.788
5024.54224.032
5124.02023.357
5223.44922.704
5322.95721.915
5422.39321.225
5521.81320.473
5621.29219.660
5720.79319.170
5820.41918.675
5920.04318.159
6019.64517.461
6119.08616.817
6218.61716.349
6318.18415.909
6417.67015.395
6517.25014.993
6616.93414.587
6716.53714.214
6816.19013.735
6915.77513.251
7015.43812.909
7114.91912.448
7214.45612.085
7314.11411.666
7413.67211.297
7513.27910.895
7612.88410.541
7712.50910.162
7812.1859.818
7911.7149.493
8011.3249.074
8110.8188.688
8210.4418.327
839.9707.925
849.4937.595
859.1267.313
868.6226.939
878.1926.562
887.7746.264
897.3625.913
906.9335.531
916.4525.182
925.9454.779
935.4574.361
944.8183.868
954.1323.525
963.5313.140
972.7742.599
982.1242.152
991.0141.655


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence