Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10113.569143.559
2076.36978.595
3055.98850.972
4042.40733.509
5033.18123.077
6026.04115.371
7020.07510.422
8014.4376.636
908.7703.518

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1271.672396.037
2212.614309.012
3185.025275.734
4170.359248.970
5159.330229.602
6147.005203.471
7136.560185.778
8127.375169.835
9120.013154.568
10113.569143.559
11106.990134.743
12101.483125.362
1398.247118.499
1494.569111.847
1589.447104.800
1686.80999.407
1783.82693.337
1881.40587.407
1979.15582.400
2076.36978.595
2173.34975.034
2271.09971.204
2368.83868.609
2467.09464.946
2565.17662.723
2663.56160.852
2761.22658.081
2859.64955.946
2958.14953.536
3055.98850.972
3154.28648.706
3252.61446.480
3351.46344.775
3450.35143.140
3548.91540.967
3647.70939.288
3746.35637.663
3845.10136.191
3943.48235.014
4042.40733.509
4141.48132.098
4240.37131.081
4339.19230.242
4438.27229.117
4537.49428.130
4636.56027.054
4735.44226.103
4834.69924.897
4933.98524.011
5033.18123.077
5132.45322.252
5231.61421.447
5330.94920.531
5430.10219.680
5529.51718.841
5628.81017.858
5728.12617.293
5827.41916.734
5926.58816.135
6026.04115.371
6125.44414.632
6224.74814.108
6324.26213.629
6423.49613.056
6522.90612.621
6622.42912.186
6721.77211.789
6821.27411.282
6920.66110.777
7020.07510.422
7119.4969.948
7218.8639.578
7318.3179.154
7417.6998.785
7517.2188.387
7616.6028.040
7716.0467.672
7815.5337.340
7914.9207.030
8014.4376.636
8113.8656.276
8213.3775.944
8312.7785.579
8412.2175.283
8511.6045.033
8611.1164.706
8710.5714.381
889.9184.127
899.3543.833
908.7703.518
918.2073.236
927.6612.918
937.0522.595
946.4092.225
955.5621.975
964.8111.703
974.0521.337
983.4091.050
992.0980.749


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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