Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1064.990112.000
2040.79066.420
3028.96444.355
4021.48329.542
5015.73520.439
6011.70013.631
708.2579.237
805.6135.872
902.9783.104

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1157.193255.344
2123.278208.231
3110.650189.899
4102.304174.933
591.062163.930
683.821148.781
776.936138.268
872.291128.569
968.163119.042
1064.990112.000
1160.863106.244
1257.80399.991
1355.24395.326
1453.19390.727
1550.60685.765
1648.41581.902
1746.20977.483
1844.04973.091
1942.22869.322
2040.79066.420
2139.19363.675
2237.80460.689
2336.41858.647
2435.14455.738
2533.80253.956
2632.99452.449
2731.90650.201
2830.93148.457
2929.97746.477
3028.96444.355
3128.11042.468
3227.11440.603
3326.27939.169
3425.35537.786
3524.82235.942
3624.11934.510
3723.44233.119
3822.78931.855
3922.14930.842
4021.48329.542
4120.62628.321
4220.04527.438
4319.32026.709
4418.57825.728
4518.04324.867
4617.69123.927
4717.23523.095
4816.73222.038
4916.13721.260
5015.73520.439
5115.26419.713
5214.84819.004
5314.47618.196
5414.13717.445
5513.60616.704
5613.19615.833
5712.81815.333
5812.50214.839
5912.09614.308
6011.70013.631
6111.41612.976
6211.03912.510
6310.69012.086
6410.34711.577
659.93911.191
669.55310.805
679.26210.451
688.93510.002
698.6209.552
708.2579.237
717.9998.816
727.7118.487
737.4478.110
747.1657.782
756.9077.428
766.6447.120
776.4006.792
786.1066.498
795.8576.222
805.6135.872
815.3715.552
825.1335.257
834.8364.933
844.5714.670
854.2854.448
864.0204.158
873.7613.869
883.4973.644
893.2873.383
902.9783.104
912.7602.854
922.5602.572
932.3002.286
941.9941.959
951.6691.738
961.2841.497
970.9831.174
980.6720.921
990.2760.656


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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