Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10128.373159.815
2078.91489.896
3053.17858.317
4036.93038.081
5025.18225.970
6017.23417.069
7011.70711.459
806.8217.191
902.8363.735

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1296.674397.941
2250.589318.923
3223.361287.988
4199.328263.107
5184.569244.235
6170.595219.545
7159.475202.363
8148.517186.451
9138.088171.066
10128.373159.815
11122.059150.710
12115.311140.950
13109.627133.665
14104.368126.466
1598.735118.847
1693.716113.032
1788.884106.294
1885.96899.686
1983.14494.126
2078.91489.896
2176.26385.901
2272.93581.419
2369.62378.620
2466.71674.403
2564.84071.898
2662.62569.765
2759.77566.505
2856.96764.004
2955.23161.315
3053.17858.317
3150.94355.727
3249.54653.082
3347.47551.111
3445.84549.300
3544.50646.717
3642.96944.810
3741.43742.904
3840.01241.217
3938.44539.830
4036.93038.081
4135.46336.432
4234.24335.267
4332.97034.272
4431.79032.977
4530.27331.838
4629.13630.565
4727.91829.493
4826.99528.092
4925.96827.045
5025.18225.970
5124.35925.018
5223.38424.105
5322.45823.013
5421.54522.065
5520.75821.044
5620.02519.954
5719.19219.302
5818.60918.649
5917.90917.973
6017.23417.069
6116.62816.244
6216.05915.650
6315.41615.098
6414.86014.458
6514.27313.961
6613.74913.465
6713.23813.012
6812.69112.437
6912.26911.862
7011.70711.459
7111.14410.922
7210.56710.503
7310.05710.024
749.6979.607
759.0739.158
768.6438.767
778.1538.353
787.6667.980
797.2727.633
806.8217.191
816.3866.789
825.9366.419
835.5006.012
845.1415.683
854.7165.405
864.3335.043
874.0334.684
883.6354.405
893.3274.081
902.8363.735
912.4753.427
922.1133.079
931.7872.728
941.4652.327
951.0322.058
960.7471.766
970.3551.375
980.0001.071
990.0000.757


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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