Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10148.942
2078.772
3050.947
4033.694
5023.383
6015.710
7010.783
806.949
903.748

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1504.859
2370.944
3321.606
4283.734
5256.269
6222.165
7199.736
8179.949
9161.720
10148.942
11138.932
12128.521
13120.956
14113.647
15106.083
16100.424
1793.981
1887.775
1982.636
2078.772
2175.157
2271.139
2368.649
2464.923
2562.723
2660.857
2758.018
2855.850
2953.527
3050.947
3148.724
3246.461
3344.777
3443.233
3541.033
3639.412
3737.792
3836.358
3935.180
4033.694
4132.294
4231.304
4330.459
4429.358
4528.389
4627.305
4726.392
4825.196
4924.302
5023.383
5122.567
5221.785
5320.848
5420.033
5519.153
5618.212
5717.648
5817.082
5916.496
6015.710
6114.991
6214.473
6313.990
6413.429
6512.993
6612.557
6712.158
6811.649
6911.140
7010.783
7110.305
729.932
739.504
749.131
758.728
768.376
778.003
787.666
797.351
806.949
816.582
826.243
835.870
845.566
855.310
864.974
874.639
884.378
894.074
903.748
913.456
923.124
932.788
942.400
952.138
961.851
971.462
981.156
990.833


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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