Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10197.350138.656
20130.25675.058
3090.58949.910
4064.25133.998
5045.77124.245
6033.21916.789
7022.79711.860
8014.5857.906
907.4524.472

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1418.275568.841
2360.087378.629
3317.254317.800
4290.427274.373
5267.858244.526
6248.408209.207
7231.923186.915
8213.670167.785
9204.571150.548
10197.350138.656
11186.230129.433
12178.005119.916
13169.454113.042
14162.169106.427
15155.84399.603
16150.03294.509
17144.52088.718
18139.97483.144
19134.99878.529
20130.25675.058
21125.10671.808
22119.72768.193
23115.56565.950
24111.77762.588
25107.87660.601
26104.43758.913
27100.46356.341
2897.09254.373
2993.59652.261
3090.58949.910
3187.30247.880
3284.04445.808
3381.31344.263
3478.68242.842
3576.40240.815
3673.84039.315
3771.72337.814
3869.54436.482
3966.92235.385
4064.25133.998
4162.15732.688
4259.62831.758
4357.49530.963
4455.52729.926
4553.48729.011
4651.99627.984
4750.70227.117
4849.28325.979
4947.57025.125
5045.77124.245
5144.67723.462
5243.28422.710
5341.53921.805
5440.29921.016
5539.03620.162
5637.81919.244
5736.41618.693
5835.41518.139
5934.32017.564
6033.21916.789
6132.26216.078
6231.34915.564
6330.21315.084
6429.20714.524
6528.13214.088
6627.05413.651
6726.05313.250
6824.80512.737
6923.76812.223
7022.79711.860
7121.97711.374
7221.04910.993
7320.17710.556
7419.46610.173
7518.5539.757
7617.7049.394
7716.9299.006
7816.0158.656
7915.3658.327
8014.5857.906
8113.6407.520
8213.0677.162
8312.2816.765
8411.6436.442
8510.7796.167
8610.0085.807
879.3595.445
888.7255.161
898.0184.830
907.4524.472
916.7894.149
926.1273.780
935.3823.403
944.7882.964
953.9502.663
963.3942.332
972.6231.876
981.5241.510
990.5701.116


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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