Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


Return to catchment list
Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1082.543112.000
2053.63166.420
3038.71044.355
4028.85729.542
5021.48420.439
6016.14713.631
7011.5209.237
807.9475.872
904.3163.104

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1179.838255.344
2145.696208.231
3133.662189.899
4122.364174.933
5113.111163.930
6103.441148.781
796.388138.268
891.220128.569
986.568119.042
1082.543112.000
1178.711106.244
1274.56099.991
1371.85595.326
1468.37790.727
1565.62985.765
1662.53681.902
1760.24777.483
1857.99273.091
1955.39569.322
2053.63166.420
2151.78863.675
2249.92260.689
2348.32758.647
2446.78055.738
2545.29053.956
2644.14852.449
2742.55350.201
2841.36348.457
2940.05946.477
3038.71044.355
3137.55842.468
3236.32640.603
3335.27739.169
3434.19837.786
3533.20835.942
3632.35434.510
3731.45233.119
3830.43231.855
3929.56430.842
4028.85729.542
4127.91228.321
4227.04127.438
4326.17726.709
4425.42525.728
4524.48924.867
4623.85823.927
4723.07023.095
4822.72122.038
4921.98321.260
5021.48420.439
5120.75619.713
5220.21719.004
5319.66918.196
5419.06017.445
5518.50616.704
5617.94915.833
5717.44215.333
5816.97314.839
5916.56514.308
6016.14713.631
6115.72112.976
6215.12612.510
6314.67712.086
6414.16811.577
6513.61311.191
6613.23410.805
6712.76910.451
6812.26810.002
6911.8189.552
7011.5209.237
7111.0598.816
7210.6508.487
7310.3088.110
749.9397.782
759.6197.428
769.2267.120
778.8686.792
788.5266.498
798.2626.222
807.9475.872
817.5555.552
827.2055.257
836.7674.933
846.4304.670
856.0144.448
865.6464.158
875.2873.869
884.9383.644
894.6803.383
904.3163.104
913.9782.854
923.6702.572
933.3882.286
942.9431.959
952.4331.738
961.9991.497
971.6021.174
981.1920.921
990.6390.656


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence