Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Probability distribution for Shoalhaven River at Warri( Sep 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile30.9109.752
Median59.85223.304
Mean88.81849.491
75% Quartile114.50755.794
Interquartile Range83.59746.042

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1441.260400.754
2366.727290.588
3318.036251.588
4284.433222.268
5260.674201.321
6244.463175.630
7227.140158.887
8212.240144.182
9205.323130.661
10194.770121.180
11185.135113.742
12177.646105.987
13170.111100.336
14161.64094.858
15155.00889.166
16149.28284.890
17144.84280.000
18140.51975.265
19136.69771.321
20132.05268.343
21128.41165.544
22124.71162.419
23121.44160.473
24117.50757.548
25114.50955.814
26110.89954.338
27108.44652.084
28104.93350.354
29102.22748.493
3099.64246.416
3197.08144.618
3294.73342.777
3391.98041.401
3490.27940.135
3587.54638.322
3684.98236.978
3782.56835.630
3880.49834.432
3978.43633.443
4076.65032.191
4174.66831.005
4272.82330.162
4370.63629.441
4468.84728.498
4567.44127.664
4665.75926.728
4763.73425.936
4862.23924.895
4961.11924.111
5059.85223.304
5158.54222.584
5257.17921.890
5355.84721.055
5454.35920.326
5552.93919.535
5651.76018.684
5750.34818.172
5848.98817.656
5947.90517.119
6046.80916.396
6145.67615.731
6244.48415.249
6343.21714.798
6442.24414.273
6541.01513.862
6639.62813.450
6738.66513.071
6837.42312.587
6936.15812.100
7035.10111.756
7134.24411.294
7233.40210.932
7332.59710.514
7431.71110.149
7530.9059.752
7629.6649.404
7728.9479.032
7827.8958.695
7926.5108.378
8025.5077.972
8124.4867.599
8223.5207.252
8322.5166.867
8421.4306.552
8520.4246.285
8619.4285.932
8718.3615.578
8817.2605.299
8916.1754.973
9015.2284.619
9114.0414.299
9213.0923.933
9312.0043.555
9411.0193.115
959.8312.812
968.4062.475
976.9022.010
985.4501.633
993.5141.222


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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