Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Probability distribution for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.0778.388
Median12.26923.077
Mean20.23353.552
75% Quartile24.88362.722
Interquartile Range18.80654.334

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1125.617396.037
293.857309.012
380.925275.734
470.952248.970
564.150229.602
658.376203.471
753.799185.778
849.961169.835
946.639154.568
1044.281143.559
1142.188134.743
1240.572125.362
1339.128118.499
1437.356111.847
1535.931104.800
1634.46799.407
1732.97093.337
1831.55387.407
1930.60982.400
2029.54378.595
2128.61675.034
2227.46471.204
2326.64068.609
2425.69964.946
2524.89262.723
2624.20660.852
2723.26358.081
2822.59055.946
2921.93053.536
3021.38850.972
3120.79248.706
3220.22246.480
3319.54444.775
3419.03143.140
3518.45340.967
3617.96439.288
3717.39237.663
3816.89136.191
3916.38035.014
4015.93633.509
4115.56132.098
4215.14231.081
4314.72130.242
4414.36729.117
4514.01728.130
4613.70427.054
4713.34326.103
4812.96124.897
4912.62024.011
5012.26923.077
5111.77622.252
5211.53221.447
5311.23120.531
5410.94819.680
5510.59518.841
5610.34517.858
5710.09917.293
589.87916.734
599.60916.135
609.34415.371
619.05814.632
628.81114.108
638.57813.629
648.38113.056
658.16812.621
667.99112.186
677.75211.789
687.51611.282
697.33710.777
707.13210.422
716.9129.948
726.6869.578
736.4949.154
746.2678.785
756.0768.387
765.7708.040
775.5527.672
785.3857.340
795.1547.030
804.9686.636
814.7616.276
824.5645.944
834.3265.579
844.1375.283
853.9225.033
863.7154.706
873.4964.381
883.2484.127
893.0453.833
902.8313.518
912.5493.236
922.3162.918
932.0722.595
941.8252.225
951.5211.975
961.2881.703
971.0421.337
980.5831.050
990.1380.749


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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