Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Probability distribution for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile13.9936.486
Median30.33724.246
Mean41.25439.217
75% Quartile58.68260.929
Interquartile Range44.68954.442

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1163.311172.460
2143.331149.249
3130.471140.130
4120.322132.618
5114.615127.041
6107.863119.258
7102.235113.761
898.302108.596
994.791103.411
1090.22599.489
1187.11196.215
1283.82792.576
1381.85989.797
1479.49486.994
1576.98083.889
1674.31681.408
1772.59378.489
1870.75375.492
1968.61872.834
2066.97370.726
2165.07968.678
2263.76766.386
2361.71364.775
2460.01862.415
2558.68960.929
2656.82359.646
2755.39857.685
2854.12056.123
2952.96554.302
3051.82352.293
3150.36750.451
3248.49648.577
3347.17947.097
3445.86845.639
3544.65943.639
3643.24642.044
3742.16840.457
3841.27838.983
3940.27537.778
4039.30436.202
4138.56334.690
4237.72133.578
4336.78432.647
4435.91931.380
4534.94930.252
4633.83329.004
4733.08127.887
4832.11026.450
4931.22225.382
5030.33724.246
5129.50823.235
5228.84322.241
5328.14921.104
5427.41620.043
5526.57618.994
5625.89917.763
5725.08817.056
5824.33716.358
5923.63915.611
6023.04314.661
6122.36213.749
6221.68913.106
6321.13312.522
6420.66911.828
6520.02311.305
6619.27510.787
6718.69310.316
6818.1389.723
6917.5869.138
7016.8328.731
7116.1988.195
7215.7387.781
7315.1047.314
7414.5126.913
7513.9926.486
7613.4276.119
7712.8605.736
7812.2685.396
7911.8815.084
8011.3364.693
8110.7944.344
8210.1794.028
839.7703.689
849.3573.419
858.8803.196
868.4612.911
877.9922.635
887.5582.425
896.9332.187
906.4071.941
915.8561.728
925.3771.495
934.9321.269
944.3281.024
953.8190.867
963.1530.705
972.4810.503
981.8130.359
991.1460.224


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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