Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Shoalhaven River at Warri


Return to catchment list
Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile11.5019.752
Median23.52823.304
Mean38.58649.491
75% Quartile47.20055.794
Interquartile Range35.69846.042

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1239.266400.754
2175.323290.588
3150.846251.588
4135.653222.268
5124.059201.321
6113.978175.630
7105.536158.887
898.014144.182
992.254130.661
1085.936121.180
1182.298113.742
1278.519105.987
1373.724100.336
1470.22794.858
1567.25089.166
1664.97584.890
1762.19580.000
1859.79875.265
1957.53071.321
2055.57568.343
2153.90665.544
2251.84562.419
2350.30860.473
2448.84057.548
2547.20055.814
2646.08554.338
2744.73252.084
2843.29350.354
2942.27748.493
3040.91246.416
3139.80244.618
3238.71242.777
3337.34341.401
3436.35240.135
3535.33238.322
3634.16936.978
3733.07735.630
3832.16934.432
3931.43533.443
4030.78532.191
4129.85831.005
4228.76330.162
4328.21229.441
4427.31328.498
4526.45727.664
4625.84226.728
4725.42125.936
4824.93524.895
4924.22124.111
5023.52823.304
5123.00022.584
5222.49721.890
5321.92521.055
5421.16820.326
5520.62219.535
5620.09218.684
5719.61218.172
5819.09017.656
5918.57217.119
6018.11416.396
6117.66315.731
6217.13215.249
6316.69714.798
6416.13514.273
6515.68713.862
6615.20613.450
6714.79413.071
6814.25812.587
6913.84512.100
7013.43011.756
7113.01711.294
7212.66010.932
7312.15010.514
7411.89210.149
7511.4999.752
7611.1449.404
7710.7119.032
7810.3488.695
799.9188.378
809.4137.972
818.8237.599
828.5067.252
838.0176.867
847.6346.552
857.2266.285
866.8435.932
876.3735.578
885.9655.299
895.5364.973
905.1454.619
914.7274.299
924.3373.933
933.8673.555
943.4503.115
952.9472.812
962.4322.475
971.8322.010
981.1641.633
990.1031.222


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence