Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri



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Probability distribution for Shoalhaven River at Warri ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.8839.159
Median16.85325.970
Mean37.46958.484
75% Quartile45.76471.869
Interquartile Range39.88062.710

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1255.584397.941
2208.331318.923
3185.063287.988
4163.978263.107
5147.246244.235
6137.374219.545
7124.018202.363
8113.965186.451
9106.224171.066
1098.588159.815
1192.113150.710
1286.423140.950
1380.323133.665
1475.739126.466
1572.017118.847
1667.810113.032
1764.071106.294
1862.24099.686
1959.73694.126
2057.08889.896
2154.25985.901
2252.05581.419
2349.61878.620
2447.71874.403
2545.78671.898
2643.93769.765
2742.01566.505
2840.35764.004
2938.62361.315
3037.52958.317
3135.65055.727
3234.03353.082
3333.01651.111
3431.74549.300
3530.72746.717
3629.29944.810
3728.15342.904
3827.25441.217
3926.34939.830
4025.31238.081
4124.31236.432
4223.31235.267
4322.39934.272
4421.56332.977
4520.58931.838
4619.69330.565
4718.82929.493
4818.17028.092
4917.51827.045
5016.85325.970
5116.28025.018
5215.56424.105
5315.06723.013
5414.54622.065
5514.04721.044
5613.42919.954
5712.94519.302
5812.40018.649
5911.94217.973
6011.50017.069
6111.01716.244
6210.54215.650
6310.07415.098
649.73514.458
659.42913.961
669.11813.465
678.65113.012
688.29212.437
697.93911.862
707.58611.459
717.23610.922
726.86910.503
736.53610.024
746.2759.607
755.8819.158
765.4568.767
775.1778.353
784.9197.980
794.6097.633
804.3517.191
814.0246.789
823.6956.419
833.4086.012
843.1345.683
852.8705.405
862.6025.043
872.3804.684
882.1794.405
891.8854.081
901.5873.735
911.3463.427
921.0903.079
930.8932.728
940.6452.327
950.4022.058
960.1551.766
970.0001.375
980.0001.071
990.0000.757


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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