Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri



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Probability distribution for Shoalhaven River at Warri ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile10.608
Median24.050
Mean50.725
75% Quartile54.843
Interquartile Range44.235

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1459.767
2299.718
3252.187
4218.924
5196.277
6169.594
7152.760
8138.284
9125.191
10116.117
11109.052
12101.727
1396.412
1491.276
1585.953
1681.961
1777.402
1872.991
1969.319
2066.545
2163.938
2261.026
2359.211
2456.482
2554.862
2653.483
2751.374
2849.754
2948.009
3046.059
3144.368
3242.635
3341.337
3440.141
3538.427
3637.154
3735.874
3834.735
3933.794
4032.599
4131.466
4230.660
4329.969
4429.064
4528.263
4627.361
4726.597
4825.591
4924.833
5024.050
5123.350
5222.675
5321.861
5421.148
5520.373
5619.538
5719.034
5818.526
5917.996
6017.281
6116.622
6216.143
6315.694
6415.170
6514.760
6614.347
6713.967
6813.480
6912.990
7012.643
7112.176
7211.809
7311.385
7411.013
7510.608
7610.252
779.871
789.525
799.199
808.779
818.393
828.033
837.632
847.303
857.022
866.652
876.278
885.983
895.637
905.260
914.917
924.522
934.114
943.633
953.300
962.928
972.408
981.981
991.509


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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