Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1980) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Aug25.0435.3221.7965.955380.381
Aug-Sep38.15655.3663.19714.242443.440
Aug-Oct59.66362.5914.10419.632509.328

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1075.818130.289
2047.60972.622
3033.60149.193
4025.06234.088
5018.64324.675
6013.99317.365
7010.07912.456
806.9278.452
903.5664.902

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1217.783490.780
2166.439335.987
3140.729285.201
4124.693248.450
5112.294222.923
6101.335192.405
794.216172.955
887.912156.139
982.347140.880
1075.818130.289
1171.162122.039
1266.154113.489
1363.275107.289
1460.391101.303
1557.30995.107
1654.51090.467
1752.41385.176
1850.56980.067
1949.09075.822
2047.60972.622
2145.60969.619
2243.91166.271
2342.27264.189
2440.33261.062
2539.21559.210
2637.77257.634
2736.75255.230
2835.70153.386
2934.71851.404
3033.60149.193
3132.68147.280
3231.69345.324
3330.77243.862
3430.05642.516
3528.97340.592
3628.00339.166
3727.26937.736
3826.44736.465
3925.60735.416
4025.06234.088
4124.29432.831
4223.48231.939
4322.75031.174
4422.05130.175
4521.51529.292
4620.90028.301
4720.32027.462
4819.77526.359
4919.30225.530
5018.64324.675
5118.01123.913
5217.48623.179
5317.10222.296
5416.54721.524
5516.07920.686
5615.66319.786
5715.23419.244
5814.86618.698
5914.45018.130
6013.99317.365
6113.57716.662
6213.23016.152
6312.88015.675
6412.59315.119
6512.13714.685
6611.75114.248
6711.37113.848
6810.98113.335
6910.50812.820
7010.07912.456
719.75011.967
729.48811.584
739.12711.142
748.82810.756
758.46910.335
768.1129.967
777.8489.573
787.5539.217
797.2068.882
806.9278.452
816.5628.057
826.2977.689
835.9357.282
845.5466.949
855.2366.665
864.9126.292
874.5655.917
884.2215.622
893.9115.276
903.5664.902
913.1694.562
922.8464.174
932.5443.774
942.2943.307
951.9412.986
961.5402.629
971.1122.136
980.6611.735
990.0371.299


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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