Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Sep12.3917.0404.3091.6863.2338.804
Sep-Oct34.27613.14324.9882.4605.953333.580
Sep-Nov50.32235.69329.0012.59910.884386.677

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1091.404121.180
2058.63568.343
3043.55546.416
4032.60332.191
5025.15023.304
6019.35116.396
7014.31211.756
8010.1107.972
905.5944.619

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1251.585400.754
2183.252290.588
3158.369251.588
4142.310222.268
5130.866201.321
6120.229175.630
7111.197158.887
8103.694144.182
997.259130.661
1091.404121.180
1187.166113.742
1283.263105.987
1378.337100.336
1474.35094.858
1571.16589.166
1668.46084.890
1765.52380.000
1863.51375.265
1961.06871.321
2058.63568.343
2157.02665.544
2255.12462.419
2353.33460.473
2451.81557.548
2550.31755.814
2649.11154.338
2747.40052.084
2845.81850.354
2944.96448.493
3043.55546.416
3142.31944.618
3240.91942.777
3339.75241.401
3438.72240.135
3537.65238.322
3636.34436.978
3735.24035.630
3834.27434.432
3933.44333.443
4032.60332.191
4131.61131.005
4230.74230.162
4329.90529.441
4429.03128.498
4528.16427.664
4627.58626.728
4727.04325.936
4826.49524.895
4925.88724.111
5025.15023.304
5124.54722.584
5223.97421.890
5323.33021.055
5422.63420.326
5522.03119.535
5621.45018.684
5720.84418.172
5820.35617.656
5919.78617.119
6019.35116.396
6118.78915.731
6218.33815.249
6317.76414.798
6417.24914.273
6516.78913.862
6616.30413.450
6715.87813.071
6815.27212.587
6914.74312.100
7014.31211.756
7113.89611.294
7213.52510.932
7313.05010.514
7412.72810.149
7512.3589.752
7611.9059.404
7711.5629.032
7811.1308.695
7910.5508.378
8010.1107.972
819.4957.599
829.1547.252
838.6346.867
848.2616.552
857.7976.285
867.3575.932
876.8615.578
886.4475.299
895.9954.973
905.5944.619
915.1394.299
924.7543.933
934.2143.555
943.7473.115
953.2252.812
962.7382.475
972.0592.010
981.3571.633
990.2731.222


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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