Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jul15.19411.36814.2160.7867.14928.006
Jul-Aug40.74317.63419.5381.65613.061408.387
Jul-Sep52.93221.94369.5822.79916.557471.446

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10147.499109.843
20103.97564.231
3081.80345.025
4064.85732.244
5051.83224.032
6042.30317.461
7034.10412.909
8025.5839.074
9016.6725.531

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1315.890404.462
2257.312271.561
3231.986230.669
4209.097201.658
5195.167181.717
6180.831158.021
7171.620142.957
8161.972129.930
9154.301118.087
10147.499109.843
11142.586103.403
12136.01196.708
13131.11791.836
14127.49287.117
15122.40482.215
16117.81078.531
17113.85074.314
18109.86170.224
19106.80666.813
20103.97564.231
21100.88661.801
2298.43959.081
2395.63757.385
2493.55654.829
2591.54853.310
2689.24952.016
2787.56250.033
2885.76648.509
2983.79546.865
3081.80345.025
3179.79543.428
3278.05341.788
3376.08940.559
3474.11339.425
3572.71237.797
3671.11236.586
3769.61735.368
3867.91634.283
3966.68033.385
4064.85732.244
4163.24131.160
4262.04430.389
4360.51429.726
4459.08928.858
4557.51228.089
4656.28027.223
4755.30926.489
4854.27925.520
4952.92524.788
5051.83224.032
5150.90723.357
5249.90122.704
5348.71721.915
5447.78621.225
5546.92020.473
5645.93719.660
5745.17219.170
5844.38218.675
5943.21418.159
6042.30317.461
6141.27816.817
6240.36916.349
6339.72615.909
6438.91915.395
6538.17314.993
6637.26014.587
6736.38514.214
6835.43813.735
6934.66613.251
7034.10412.909
7133.16212.448
7232.24312.085
7331.19211.666
7430.37011.297
7529.72610.895
7628.92510.541
7727.84810.162
7827.1979.818
7926.4539.493
8025.5839.074
8124.6218.688
8223.9188.327
8322.9827.925
8421.8597.595
8521.0157.313
8620.3376.939
8719.2056.562
8818.4116.264
8917.6545.913
9016.6725.531
9115.7195.182
9214.6624.779
9313.6484.361
9412.5513.868
9511.2703.525
969.6513.140
978.0032.599
986.4542.152
994.8001.655


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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