Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1980) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Aug25.5496.2655.3221.7965.913380.381
Aug-Sep37.73810.57555.3663.1979.408443.440
Aug-Oct59.59331.25362.5914.10414.340509.328

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10141.989130.289
2090.46472.622
3065.60349.193
4049.65934.088
5037.12324.675
6028.32517.365
7021.14212.456
8014.7058.452
908.0984.902

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1338.358490.780
2273.880335.987
3238.500285.201
4217.938248.450
5197.068222.923
6182.172192.405
7170.727172.955
8160.699156.139
9150.799140.880
10141.989130.289
11133.488122.039
12126.815113.489
13120.658107.289
14114.929101.303
15110.02595.107
16105.63890.467
17101.45385.176
1897.34780.067
1994.43275.822
2090.46472.622
2187.61469.619
2285.48166.271
2381.70564.189
2479.45561.062
2576.30759.210
2674.04257.634
2772.11955.230
2869.74753.386
2967.54951.404
3065.60349.193
3163.71447.280
3262.11345.324
3360.28043.862
3458.87542.516
3557.14740.592
3655.66539.166
3753.72737.736
3852.22536.465
3950.85535.416
4049.65934.088
4148.42732.831
4246.97831.939
4345.80931.174
4444.34630.175
4542.91429.292
4641.53728.301
4740.40027.462
4839.28626.359
4938.15025.530
5037.12324.675
5136.26723.913
5235.42623.179
5334.33222.296
5433.48321.524
5532.39820.686
5631.50719.786
5730.68519.244
5829.87118.698
5929.01818.130
6028.32517.365
6127.43116.662
6226.68616.152
6325.88715.675
6425.24415.119
6524.69414.685
6623.92814.248
6723.30713.848
6822.48613.335
6921.86412.820
7021.14212.456
7120.33711.967
7219.62011.584
7318.98611.142
7418.38310.756
7517.68410.335
7617.0989.967
7716.5539.573
7815.9339.217
7915.4768.882
8014.7058.452
8114.0698.057
8213.3517.689
8312.7207.282
8412.1126.949
8511.6066.665
8610.8916.292
8710.1195.917
889.4785.622
898.7525.276
908.0984.902
917.3834.562
926.7054.174
936.1173.774
945.6093.307
954.9692.986
964.2442.629
973.4422.136
982.5761.735
991.4851.299


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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