Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Oct21.85620.6797.2250.7744.932324.776
Oct-Nov37.60124.69214.8050.91310.293377.873
Oct-Dec51.38727.10517.9331.13525.061391.496

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10229.540143.559
20160.17578.595
30120.85350.972
4093.50333.509
5073.77323.077
6058.53115.371
7045.02510.422
8032.7046.636
9020.2883.518

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1477.334396.037
2400.751309.012
3351.908275.734
4324.417248.970
5305.220229.602
6283.213203.471
7271.117185.778
8254.986169.835
9240.434154.568
10229.540143.559
11220.339134.743
12207.907125.362
13200.494118.499
14193.011111.847
15186.546104.800
16179.36799.407
17174.37693.337
18170.30587.407
19165.79582.400
20160.17578.595
21156.23275.034
22151.72571.204
23147.39568.609
24143.52364.946
25139.05662.723
26135.85360.852
27130.83258.081
28127.74455.946
29124.15353.536
30120.85350.972
31117.75548.706
32115.00746.480
33111.95644.775
34109.45443.140
35106.92040.967
36104.82139.288
37102.01237.663
3899.05736.191
3996.22435.014
4093.50333.509
4190.85832.098
4288.57531.081
4386.40230.242
4484.38929.117
4582.32728.130
4680.96427.054
4779.25626.103
4877.39324.897
4975.46524.011
5073.77323.077
5172.35422.252
5270.62921.447
5369.00620.531
5467.60819.680
5566.23118.841
5664.65217.858
5762.94817.293
5861.71916.734
5960.08816.135
6058.53115.371
6157.19814.632
6255.72214.108
6354.34513.629
6453.03913.056
6551.73112.621
6650.37412.186
6748.89911.789
6847.38611.282
6946.10310.777
7045.02510.422
7143.9849.948
7242.8449.578
7341.1809.154
7440.0068.785
7538.7208.387
7637.7428.040
7736.3167.672
7835.1087.340
7933.9027.030
8032.7046.636
8131.5466.276
8230.0185.944
8328.9315.579
8427.6055.283
8526.0725.033
8625.0594.706
8723.7964.381
8822.6794.127
8921.3033.833
9020.2883.518
9118.8313.236
9217.5442.918
9316.2782.595
9414.9762.225
9513.3481.975
9612.0891.703
9710.1921.337
988.4321.050
996.0210.749


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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