Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1992) (GL)
Nov15.7464.0137.5800.1395.36143.260
Nov-Dec29.5326.42610.7080.36220.129153.354
Nov-Jan38.9838.99611.6920.44924.251184.324

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1083.20099.489
2060.23070.726
3045.32052.293
4034.59436.202
5026.59024.246
6020.19014.661
7014.6568.731
809.8674.693
905.6641.941

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1152.965172.460
2133.286149.249
3117.916140.130
4109.425132.618
5104.519127.041
699.314119.258
794.749113.761
890.513108.596
987.098103.411
1083.20099.489
1180.50596.215
1277.52392.576
1374.85289.797
1472.31886.994
1570.03383.889
1668.14481.408
1766.33178.489
1864.59275.492
1962.28472.834
2060.23070.726
2158.78268.678
2257.35666.386
2355.77964.775
2454.34062.415
2552.91560.929
2651.14559.646
2749.54657.685
2848.08556.123
2946.69954.302
3045.32052.293
3143.85750.451
3242.58548.577
3341.46347.097
3440.39745.639
3539.29343.639
3638.40742.044
3737.51140.457
3836.67938.983
3935.79337.778
4034.59436.202
4133.47734.690
4232.73533.578
4331.87032.647
4431.01431.380
4530.28430.252
4629.41929.004
4728.70027.887
4828.02326.450
4927.16825.382
5026.59024.246
5125.99323.235
5225.47222.241
5324.84521.104
5424.27020.043
5523.55418.994
5622.78317.763
5722.12217.056
5821.33416.358
5920.86515.611
6020.19014.661
6119.75713.749
6219.21413.106
6318.69812.522
6418.04211.828
6517.39511.305
6616.83010.787
6716.27110.316
6815.8329.723
6915.1539.138
7014.6568.731
7114.0828.195
7213.5657.781
7313.1257.314
7412.5196.913
7512.1006.486
7611.6236.119
7711.1805.736
7810.7255.396
7910.3085.084
809.8674.693
819.3704.344
829.0294.028
838.5993.689
848.1483.419
857.6783.196
867.1202.911
876.7232.635
886.3872.425
896.0122.187
905.6641.941
915.2181.728
924.7691.495
934.2661.269
943.7441.024
953.2490.867
962.6930.705
972.1740.503
981.6020.359
990.9310.224


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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