Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


Return to catchment list
Product list for Shoalhaven River at Warri


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Apr18.2064.35620.6890.2785.059132.337
Apr-May33.2817.40024.5070.7248.484157.262
Apr-Jun63.14842.06730.1821.38024.415553.953

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10172.864138.656
20112.14475.058
3076.64349.910
4054.33533.998
5038.40324.245
6027.59416.789
7018.94511.860
8011.9597.906
905.9924.472

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1388.672568.841
2327.451378.629
3288.850317.800
4264.654274.373
5240.056244.526
6222.019209.207
7207.679186.915
8190.528167.785
9180.431150.548
10172.864138.656
11163.830129.433
12156.251119.916
13147.910113.042
14141.318106.427
15136.00399.603
16129.86294.509
17124.95388.718
18120.80183.144
19116.74178.529
20112.14475.058
21106.77971.808
22102.85868.193
2398.95465.950
2495.53862.588
2591.74760.601
2688.99358.913
2785.80456.341
2882.84454.373
2979.84452.261
3076.64349.910
3173.76147.880
3271.60245.808
3369.28544.263
3466.71042.842
3564.29640.815
3662.39739.315
3760.58837.814
3858.53236.482
3956.28735.385
4054.33533.998
4152.15232.688
4250.10531.758
4347.98230.963
4446.50429.926
4545.26929.011
4643.73127.984
4742.55827.117
4841.16425.979
4939.79125.125
5038.40324.245
5137.34823.462
5236.06022.710
5334.95021.805
5433.47921.016
5532.46420.162
5631.26419.244
5730.40118.693
5829.49918.139
5928.54617.564
6027.59416.789
6126.86716.078
6226.08215.564
6325.18415.084
6424.29614.524
6523.45914.088
6622.37013.651
6721.64313.250
6820.59212.737
6919.68712.223
7018.94511.860
7118.16911.374
7217.51110.993
7316.73710.556
7416.10910.173
7515.4309.757
7614.5839.394
7713.9259.006
7813.2378.656
7912.5958.327
8011.9597.906
8111.2097.520
8210.7367.162
8310.0596.765
849.5516.442
858.8316.167
868.1585.807
877.6435.445
887.0215.161
896.5624.830
905.9924.472
915.4994.149
924.9313.780
934.3103.403
943.8172.964
953.1612.663
962.6542.332
971.9961.876
981.1291.510
990.2641.116


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence