Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Jun29.86734.6675.6750.65715.931396.691
Jun-Jul45.03648.8838.9061.44324.203520.486
Jun-Aug70.07954.20569.0082.31330.157547.947

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10141.388
2077.769
3052.276
4035.967
5025.877
6018.091
7012.897
808.688
904.988

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1565.194
2377.774
3318.705
4275.524
5245.421
6211.459
7189.323
8170.280
9153.269
10141.388
11132.185
12122.774
13115.919
14108.986
15102.364
1697.340
1791.232
1885.788
1981.227
2077.769
2174.411
2270.622
2368.529
2465.172
2563.155
2661.441
2758.827
2856.825
2954.673
3052.276
3150.204
3248.087
3346.506
3445.052
3542.974
3641.436
3739.894
3838.525
3937.396
4035.967
4134.616
4233.658
4332.837
4431.765
4530.818
4629.755
4728.857
4827.677
4926.790
5025.877
5125.063
5224.279
5323.337
5422.514
5521.622
5620.663
5720.087
5819.507
5918.904
6018.091
6117.345
6216.805
6316.299
6415.710
6515.251
6614.789
6714.366
6813.824
6913.280
7012.897
7112.382
7211.978
7311.513
7411.106
7510.664
7610.277
779.864
789.490
799.138
808.688
818.275
827.891
837.465
847.117
856.822
866.433
876.042
885.735
895.376
904.988
914.637
924.235
933.823
943.341
953.011
962.645
972.140
981.732
991.290


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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