Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri


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Historical and exceedance probability for Shoalhaven River at Warri ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1971) (GL)
Jan10.08420.6074.9650.3183.41613.564
Jan-Feb27.37639.65029.1000.89214.153191.254
Jan-Mar53.59469.475218.2431.37220.224215.576

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10124.282
2077.229
3052.800
4035.638
5024.811
6016.601
7011.266
807.167
903.790

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1261.972
2217.276
3199.818
4185.514
5174.959
6160.350
7150.143
8140.663
9131.276
10124.282
11118.523
12112.219
13107.480
14102.774
1597.656
1693.640
1789.010
1884.366
1980.347
2077.229
2174.261
2271.011
2368.774
2465.568
2563.594
2661.917
2759.403
2857.444
2955.208
3052.800
3150.648
3248.511
3346.861
3445.265
3543.127
3641.461
3739.837
3838.358
3937.168
4035.638
4134.197
4233.153
4332.289
4431.125
4530.102
4628.982
4727.989
4826.726
4925.794
5024.811
5123.939
5223.087
5322.115
5421.210
5520.316
5619.266
5718.662
5818.064
5917.422
6016.601
6115.807
6215.244
6314.728
6414.111
6513.642
6613.173
6712.743
6812.197
6911.650
7011.266
7110.754
7210.354
739.895
749.496
759.065
768.689
778.290
787.931
797.595
807.167
816.778
826.418
836.022
845.701
855.430
865.076
874.724
884.450
894.131
903.790
913.485
923.141
932.792
942.392
952.122
961.828
971.433
981.124
990.801


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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