Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Product list for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.94318.841
207.37510.744
305.1777.118
403.6654.757
502.7253.319
601.9682.239
701.3971.536
800.8600.991
900.3970.535

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
128.61547.853
223.07038.028
320.47234.247
418.68831.189
516.47328.963
615.13025.936
714.16223.866
813.28121.985
912.48620.165
1011.94318.841
1111.37417.771
1210.73616.625
1310.00515.780
149.50514.955
159.14414.075
168.80113.398
178.41512.630
188.07711.875
197.76011.234
207.37510.744
217.11110.283
226.8169.786
236.4829.447
246.2838.968
256.1148.676
265.9128.429
275.7618.063
285.5697.780
295.4167.460
305.1777.118
314.9906.815
324.7766.516
334.6316.287
344.5076.066
354.3425.772
364.1895.545
374.0565.324
383.9185.124
393.8014.963
403.6654.757
413.5474.564
423.4314.425
433.3164.309
443.2104.154
453.1234.018
463.0413.870
472.9373.738
482.8633.571
492.7903.448
502.7253.319
512.6483.204
522.5653.092
532.4822.964
542.4142.845
552.3202.727
562.2402.589
572.1782.510
582.1042.431
592.0312.347
601.9682.239
611.8982.135
621.8352.061
631.7751.993
641.7121.912
651.6541.850
661.5921.788
671.5421.731
681.4851.659
691.4281.587
701.3971.536
711.3411.469
721.2961.416
731.2451.355
741.1841.302
751.1231.244
761.0741.194
771.0091.141
780.9541.093
790.9061.049
800.8600.991
810.8150.939
820.7710.891
830.7260.838
840.6710.795
850.6180.758
860.5720.710
870.5260.663
880.4850.625
890.4370.582
900.3970.535
910.3530.494
920.3070.446
930.2510.398
940.2050.343
950.1520.306
960.1060.265
970.0520.209
980.0000.165
990.0000.119


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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