Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Product list for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1012.46216.695
208.2979.952
305.9626.832
404.3674.730
503.2693.404
602.4402.375
701.7731.683
801.1731.127
900.6040.641

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
127.63940.758
222.94532.558
320.13029.416
418.04226.881
516.91525.040
616.01422.542
715.04020.836
814.14619.286
913.12317.787
1012.46216.695
1111.93615.813
1211.43514.865
1310.83214.165
1410.47813.480
1510.08812.749
169.68512.183
179.30611.541
188.94610.907
198.59210.366
208.2979.952
218.0449.561
227.6849.137
237.3728.848
247.1748.437
256.9808.185
266.7937.973
276.5687.656
286.3767.410
296.1657.131
305.9626.832
315.8086.566
325.5916.303
335.4256.100
345.2375.905
355.0725.643
364.9385.440
374.8035.242
384.6625.061
394.5184.916
404.3674.730
414.2314.554
424.1104.427
433.9844.321
443.8694.179
453.7654.054
463.6683.917
473.5473.795
483.4393.640
493.3503.525
503.2693.404
513.1923.296
523.0873.191
532.9983.070
542.9122.957
552.8452.845
562.7412.713
572.6552.637
582.5812.561
592.5072.480
602.4402.375
612.3682.274
622.2952.202
632.2332.135
642.1732.055
652.1221.995
662.0571.933
671.9821.877
681.9131.806
691.8341.734
701.7731.683
711.7191.615
721.6661.561
731.6061.500
741.5571.446
751.4931.388
761.4201.336
771.3651.282
781.3031.233
791.2441.186
801.1731.127
811.0951.072
821.0461.022
831.0020.966
840.9470.920
850.8950.881
860.8430.830
870.7830.779
880.7250.739
890.6640.692
900.6040.641
910.5350.595
920.4780.543
930.4260.489
940.3590.427
950.3050.384
960.2500.336
970.1900.271
980.1010.219
990.0000.162


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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