Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Product list for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Probability distribution for Tuross River at Tuross Vale(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.277
Median4.346
Mean8.771
75% Quartile12.589
Interquartile Range11.312

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
147.153
239.760
336.858
434.470
532.700
630.234
728.496
826.869
925.242
1024.016
1122.998
1221.872
1321.016
1420.158
1519.215
1618.467
1717.595
1816.709
1915.932
2015.323
2114.738
2214.091
2313.642
2412.992
2512.589
2612.244
2711.724
2811.316
2910.848
3010.340
319.884
329.429
339.076
348.733
358.273
367.914
377.564
387.244
396.987
406.657
416.346
426.121
435.935
445.686
455.467
465.228
475.017
484.749
494.553
504.346
514.165
523.988
533.787
543.601
553.419
563.207
573.085
582.966
592.839
602.677
612.522
622.413
632.314
642.197
652.108
662.019
671.939
681.838
691.738
701.668
711.575
721.503
731.422
741.352
751.277
761.212
771.143
781.083
791.026
800.955
810.891
820.833
830.770
840.719
850.676
860.622
870.568
880.527
890.480
900.430
910.387
920.338
930.291
940.237
950.203
960.166
970.118
980.083
990.048


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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