Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Product list for Tuross River at Tuross Vale



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Probability distribution for Tuross River at Tuross Vale ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.197
Median4.113
Mean8.489
75% Quartile12.135
Interquartile Range10.938

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
146.254
238.954
336.088
433.730
531.981
629.545
727.829
826.222
924.615
1023.405
1122.399
1221.287
1320.442
1419.595
1518.665
1617.926
1717.066
1816.192
1915.426
2014.826
2114.250
2213.613
2313.170
2412.532
2512.135
2611.797
2711.286
2810.886
2910.427
309.930
319.483
329.038
338.693
348.359
357.911
367.562
377.221
386.910
396.661
406.341
416.040
425.822
435.643
445.402
455.190
464.960
474.757
484.500
494.311
504.113
513.939
523.769
533.577
543.400
553.226
563.023
572.908
582.794
592.673
602.519
612.372
622.269
632.175
642.064
651.980
661.896
671.821
681.725
691.630
701.565
711.477
721.410
731.334
741.268
751.197
761.136
771.072
781.015
790.963
800.896
810.837
820.782
830.723
840.676
850.637
860.586
870.536
880.498
890.455
900.409
910.369
920.324
930.281
940.232
950.200
960.167
970.123
980.091
990.060


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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