Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Product list for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1949+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1980) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Oct2.8330.9610.0430.6650.569
Oct-Nov4.8804.2040.0821.95919.720
Oct-Dec7.1605.2840.1143.84840.263

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.77418.841
2013.17110.744
309.6567.118
407.0054.757
505.2833.319
603.9782.239
702.8591.536
801.8910.991
900.9950.535

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
139.96647.853
233.89838.028
330.64034.247
428.17231.189
526.02228.963
623.90225.936
722.64923.866
821.65621.985
920.71320.165
1019.77418.841
1119.04517.771
1217.93516.625
1317.02015.780
1416.32514.955
1515.62914.075
1615.03213.398
1714.67512.630
1814.16011.875
1913.69111.234
2013.17110.744
2112.75910.283
2212.4459.786
2312.0719.447
2411.6548.968
2511.3178.676
2610.9458.429
2710.5748.063
2810.2477.780
299.9237.460
309.6567.118
319.3546.815
329.0586.516
338.7986.287
348.5366.066
358.2665.772
368.0225.545
377.7635.324
387.5445.124
397.2284.963
407.0054.757
416.8104.564
426.5874.425
436.4194.309
446.2304.154
456.0414.018
465.8863.870
475.7433.738
485.5783.571
495.4263.448
505.2833.319
515.1443.204
524.9863.092
534.8612.964
544.7242.845
554.5862.727
564.4492.589
574.3252.510
584.2272.431
594.1012.347
603.9782.239
613.8762.135
623.7312.061
633.6221.993
643.5021.912
653.4091.850
663.2611.788
673.1661.731
683.0431.659
692.9541.587
702.8591.536
712.7731.469
722.6691.416
732.5911.355
742.4921.302
752.3851.244
762.3011.194
772.2041.141
782.0961.093
791.9871.049
801.8910.991
811.8010.939
821.7070.891
831.6130.838
841.5160.795
851.4170.758
861.3320.710
871.2530.663
881.1900.625
891.0960.582
900.9950.535
910.8980.494
920.8110.446
930.7320.398
940.6540.343
950.5340.306
960.4340.265
970.3320.209
980.2210.165
990.1000.119


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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