Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Product list for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1949+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Apr2.6780.2920.0251.31715.757
Apr-May5.0740.6240.0302.60422.970
Apr-Jun11.7094.5510.0345.277119.904

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.51430.497
2012.72815.197
308.7749.410
406.2235.959
504.4973.980
603.1872.565
702.3211.684
801.4501.031
900.7330.512

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
184.610107.747
257.09679.207
343.36168.609
437.70960.298
533.58654.435
629.71746.768
727.20041.761
824.77337.389
922.95433.336
1021.51430.497
1120.13828.275
1218.80425.962
1317.64924.302
1416.60922.720
1515.81921.073
1615.14719.832
1714.38218.455
1813.84517.130
1913.23816.027
2012.72815.197
2112.26714.429
2211.83913.609
2311.47913.058
2411.05512.287
2510.58311.823
2610.12411.434
279.70310.861
289.39310.422
299.0489.930
308.7749.410
318.4358.953
328.2208.507
337.8528.167
347.6137.842
357.3187.413
367.0517.083
376.8606.765
386.6226.479
396.3976.250
406.2235.959
416.0555.688
425.8595.493
435.6635.332
445.4825.118
455.3234.930
465.1584.727
474.9864.547
484.8014.320
494.6224.154
504.4973.980
514.3233.827
524.1793.677
534.0583.508
543.9303.351
553.8173.197
563.6563.017
573.5242.914
583.4142.812
593.3072.704
603.1872.565
613.0682.432
622.9822.338
632.8972.252
642.8012.150
652.7182.073
662.6421.996
672.5761.925
682.4851.836
692.4121.747
702.3211.684
712.2251.601
722.1481.537
732.0651.463
741.9771.399
751.8731.330
761.7951.271
771.7131.207
781.6341.151
791.5271.098
801.4501.031
811.3700.970
821.2990.914
831.2320.852
841.1760.803
851.0910.761
861.0300.707
870.9490.653
880.8890.612
890.8000.563
900.7330.512
910.6550.467
920.5970.415
930.5360.364
940.4490.306
950.3640.267
960.2860.224
970.1990.168
980.1140.125
990.0090.081


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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