Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Product list for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1949+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1980) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Sep1.9171.3100.6600.0530.5401.070
Sep-Oct4.8062.3392.4500.0950.95930.250
Sep-Nov6.8573.8373.1040.1351.94333.943

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.55916.695
209.9249.952
307.2896.832
405.3724.730
504.0503.404
603.0322.375
702.2371.683
801.5031.127
900.7990.641

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.14740.758
225.86432.558
322.57629.416
420.50926.881
519.32925.040
618.31222.542
717.14320.836
816.27419.286
915.40817.787
1014.55916.695
1113.92615.813
1213.40314.865
1312.73314.165
1412.39513.480
1511.95912.749
1611.58012.183
1711.14311.541
1810.67310.907
1910.31710.366
209.9249.952
219.6179.561
229.2829.137
238.9358.848
248.6708.437
258.4458.185
268.1787.973
277.9547.656
287.7797.410
297.5117.131
307.2896.832
317.0606.566
326.8246.303
336.6116.100
346.4285.905
356.2305.643
366.0485.440
375.9205.242
385.7225.061
395.5514.916
405.3724.730
415.2184.554
425.0784.427
434.9294.321
444.7924.179
454.6484.054
464.5383.917
474.3933.795
484.2653.640
494.1653.525
504.0503.404
513.9383.296
523.8353.191
533.7313.070
543.6462.957
553.5372.845
563.4192.713
573.3312.637
583.2392.561
593.1332.480
603.0322.375
612.9442.274
622.8902.202
632.8082.135
642.7252.055
652.6501.995
662.5911.933
672.4821.877
682.4011.806
692.3291.734
702.2371.683
712.1651.615
722.1091.561
732.0341.500
741.9711.446
751.8841.388
761.7991.336
771.7281.282
781.6641.233
791.5851.186
801.5031.127
811.4071.072
821.3371.022
831.2860.966
841.2220.920
851.1550.881
861.0940.830
871.0280.779
880.9450.739
890.8780.692
900.7990.641
910.7160.595
920.6360.543
930.5690.489
940.5000.427
950.4330.384
960.3580.336
970.2850.271
980.1760.219
990.0560.162


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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