Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Product list for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1949+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Nov2.0511.4980.6530.0300.98419.151
Nov-Dec4.3903.7731.0260.0322.80239.694
Nov-Jan5.6474.4211.2340.0353.36245.692

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1012.40513.621
207.7087.893
305.4175.439
403.9923.802
502.9322.758
602.1931.931
701.5371.358
800.9720.884
900.4770.453

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
134.92542.326
228.48631.108
323.31227.157
420.22324.138
518.52822.045
616.40219.342
714.93317.588
814.00616.056
913.04314.629
1012.40513.621
1111.78512.825
1211.21511.988
1310.63811.380
1410.17410.795
159.58810.178
169.1519.708
178.7729.179
188.4408.662
198.1318.226
207.7087.893
217.4357.582
227.2377.245
236.9437.017
246.6536.693
256.4196.495
266.1726.329
275.9506.081
285.7565.889
295.5875.672
305.4175.439
315.2545.232
325.0955.027
334.9124.869
344.7684.717
354.6194.514
364.5044.355
374.3734.201
384.2594.061
394.1053.947
403.9923.802
413.8543.664
423.7643.565
433.6463.482
443.5313.370
453.4293.272
463.3273.164
473.2423.068
483.1382.945
493.0222.854
502.9322.758
512.8562.672
522.7532.588
532.6742.491
542.5972.401
552.5212.311
562.4652.205
572.3922.143
582.3212.082
592.2532.016
602.1931.931
612.1001.848
622.0341.788
631.9751.734
641.9091.668
651.8411.618
661.7831.567
671.7101.521
681.6591.461
691.5881.401
701.5371.358
711.4661.301
721.4081.256
731.3541.204
741.3111.158
751.2441.109
761.1921.065
771.1461.018
781.0840.976
791.0160.936
800.9720.884
810.9180.837
820.8650.793
830.8070.744
840.7690.703
850.7240.669
860.6800.623
870.6320.577
880.5810.541
890.5280.499
900.4770.453
910.4280.410
920.3680.362
930.3100.312
940.2550.253
950.2020.212
960.1450.166
970.0780.103
980.0000.050
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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