Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Product list for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1949+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
May2.4352.8820.3310.0051.4767.213
May-Jun9.1189.1344.2590.0093.846104.147
May-Jul12.65010.9455.7980.0145.703120.538

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.64733.568
209.22017.869
306.50911.558
404.8187.615
503.6885.258
602.7413.505
702.0292.370
801.3421.492
900.7410.759

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
147.737108.153
233.49880.678
327.81470.510
423.76662.536
521.38456.902
619.38149.506
717.71844.647
816.48540.377
915.32236.386
1014.64733.568
1113.68931.347
1212.98929.017
1312.39627.334
1411.79625.720
1511.31524.027
1610.70722.742
1710.30721.308
189.87719.917
199.48918.751
209.22017.869
218.80217.047
228.52216.166
238.25515.571
247.95314.733
257.73514.226
267.47513.800
277.19413.170
286.93612.685
296.70412.138
306.50911.558
316.31011.045
326.14910.542
335.98410.157
345.7669.788
355.5839.298
365.4578.919
375.3128.552
385.1198.220
394.9557.955
404.8187.615
414.6997.297
424.5647.068
434.4316.878
444.3176.624
454.2106.401
464.0916.158
473.9905.943
483.8635.670
493.7765.469
503.6885.258
513.5755.071
523.4664.888
533.3504.680
543.2584.487
553.1714.297
563.0774.073
572.9833.944
582.9033.817
592.8233.680
602.7413.505
612.6633.337
622.6003.217
632.5283.107
642.4642.976
652.3782.876
662.3032.776
672.2152.685
682.1612.568
692.0912.452
702.0292.370
711.9522.261
721.8822.175
731.8212.077
741.7631.992
751.6851.899
761.6211.819
771.5481.733
781.4761.656
791.4091.584
801.3421.492
811.2881.408
821.2331.330
831.1451.245
841.0841.175
851.0281.117
860.9811.040
870.9330.963
880.8620.903
890.7930.834
900.7410.759
910.6860.692
920.6260.616
930.5620.539
940.4840.450
950.4240.390
960.3420.324
970.2550.235
980.1310.165
990.0280.091


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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