Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Product list for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1949+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1970) (GL)
Dec2.3020.3731.0800.0021.8549.538
Dec-Jan3.5400.5811.3820.0052.43312.365
Dec-Feb6.0951.4431.5010.0054.12834.269

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.97816.495
2013.7959.725
3010.3356.498
407.7614.337
505.7733.004
604.3162.000
703.1761.347
802.1200.841
901.1510.420

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.69138.407
233.84831.156
329.94328.341
427.81726.048
526.00924.367
624.66722.057
722.78620.460
821.82218.991
920.78217.554
1019.97816.495
1119.13115.631
1218.38514.696
1317.61514.000
1416.80113.316
1516.19812.579
1615.64712.007
1715.23211.354
1814.85310.706
1914.31710.152
2013.7959.725
2113.2879.322
2212.9208.885
2312.5868.586
2412.2768.160
2511.9337.900
2611.6377.679
2711.2947.351
2810.9137.097
2910.5806.808
3010.3356.498
319.9886.223
329.7535.951
339.5245.742
349.2825.540
358.9745.271
368.7315.062
378.4734.860
388.2204.675
398.0164.527
407.7614.337
417.5414.159
427.3974.030
437.1583.923
446.9553.780
456.7103.654
466.4823.516
476.3023.394
486.1123.239
495.9353.125
505.7733.004
515.5822.898
525.4462.793
535.2762.674
545.1212.564
554.9722.455
564.8132.326
574.6722.252
584.5612.179
594.4152.101
604.3162.000
614.2201.903
624.1111.834
633.9941.771
643.8691.696
653.7461.638
663.6381.581
673.5101.528
683.3831.461
693.2811.394
703.1761.347
713.0721.284
722.9531.234
732.8281.178
742.6931.129
752.5971.076
762.5081.029
772.4200.980
782.3150.935
792.2340.894
802.1200.841
812.0260.793
821.9170.748
831.8170.699
841.7020.659
851.6230.625
861.5380.581
871.4390.537
881.3430.502
891.2390.462
901.1510.420
911.0520.381
920.9640.338
930.8550.294
940.7480.243
950.6610.208
960.5570.171
970.4270.120
980.3420.080
990.1950.038


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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