Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale


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Product list for Tuross River at Tuross Vale



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Historical and exceedance probability for Tuross River at Tuross Vale ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1949+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1951) (GL)
Jan1.2610.0140.0050.0140.3171.703
Jan-Feb3.7390.0156.6570.0151.45529.048
Jan-Mar7.3980.0158.4060.0152.33948.119

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1020.427
2012.794
308.607
405.608
503.740
602.372
701.522
800.902
900.425

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
141.406
234.673
332.034
429.864
528.258
626.023
724.453
822.987
921.524
1020.427
1119.517
1218.516
1317.757
1417.000
1516.170
1615.515
1714.755
1813.986
1913.316
2012.794
2112.293
2211.743
2311.362
2410.814
2510.475
2610.187
279.753
289.414
299.026
308.607
318.232
327.859
337.570
347.291
356.917
366.625
376.341
386.083
395.875
405.608
415.357
425.176
435.026
444.824
454.647
464.454
474.283
484.067
493.908
503.740
513.592
523.448
533.285
543.133
552.984
562.809
572.709
582.611
592.506
602.372
612.243
622.152
632.069
641.970
651.895
661.821
671.753
681.667
691.581
701.522
711.442
721.381
731.310
741.250
751.184
761.128
771.068
781.014
790.965
800.902
810.845
820.793
830.736
840.690
850.651
860.602
870.552
880.514
890.471
900.425
910.384
920.338
930.292
940.241
950.207
960.170
970.122
980.086
990.050


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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