Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1062.88361.917
2049.01542.620
3040.44532.755
4033.92125.358
5028.41520.165
6023.97315.684
7019.91412.319
8015.7669.295
9010.9026.250

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1113.535129.180
296.644105.764
387.90296.954
479.91089.914
576.12584.832
672.85877.968
770.33073.295
867.36069.048
964.95764.930
1062.88361.917
1161.25459.470
1259.40956.825
1357.76454.859
1456.13852.922
1554.90050.833
1653.27149.205
1751.90247.338
1850.71845.475
1950.00143.866
2049.01542.620
2147.94941.434
2247.10840.134
2346.02039.238
2445.15937.952
2544.33637.157
2643.58036.480
2742.71135.461
2841.95734.663
2941.07833.747
3040.44532.755
3139.72331.861
3239.03730.966
3338.43030.269
3437.85729.591
3537.21128.673
3636.61927.949
3735.82027.237
3835.16726.582
3934.40926.050
4033.92125.358
4133.18624.699
4232.66924.216
4332.01323.813
4431.50523.265
4530.99122.777
4630.42522.238
4729.76121.754
4829.34021.130
4928.94020.663
5028.41520.165
5127.95819.717
5227.43019.274
5327.04118.761
5426.61418.277
5526.15417.791
5625.65917.211
5725.22216.872
5824.77316.532
5924.33016.163
6023.97315.684
6123.46115.212
6222.98014.871
6322.62014.556
6422.25714.173
6521.92813.877
6621.51513.578
6721.07513.301
6820.63312.943
6920.25412.578
7019.91412.319
7119.54911.967
7219.12211.687
7318.68111.363
7418.22111.075
7517.83910.759
7617.38110.479
7716.93210.177
7816.4769.900
7916.1649.637
8015.7669.295
8115.3378.977
8214.9278.678
8314.3538.340
8413.8798.061
8513.4357.820
8612.9667.498
8712.3787.170
8811.8766.907
8911.4276.595
9010.9026.250
9110.2915.932
929.7655.559
939.1865.165
948.5234.690
957.8414.353
967.1743.967
976.3783.407
985.4742.928
994.0432.370


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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