Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1033.40363.336
2024.24342.983
3019.01332.290
4015.11524.263
5012.47018.692
6010.00213.979
707.99810.529
806.0867.521
904.0464.613

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
170.166127.742
259.743106.169
352.74097.873
447.19691.149
543.27386.236
640.53579.512
738.15374.872
836.50470.606
935.07466.425
1033.40363.336
1132.08560.810
1230.81758.060
1329.80256.003
1428.73353.967
1527.75651.760
1626.81950.033
1726.13448.044
1825.54646.050
1924.95144.324
2024.24342.983
2123.74741.704
2223.28140.299
2322.66939.330
2422.12237.936
2521.54237.074
2621.12536.338
2720.68635.232
2820.16334.365
2919.70533.369
3019.01332.290
3118.64131.318
3218.19430.345
3317.72929.587
3417.29028.850
3516.80027.853
3616.42227.068
3716.03326.296
3815.75025.586
3915.37425.010
4015.11524.263
4114.87423.551
4214.62023.031
4314.30122.597
4414.00122.007
4513.70321.484
4613.49820.905
4713.23120.387
4812.98719.721
4912.70819.223
5012.47018.692
5112.25818.217
5212.04117.747
5311.82917.204
5411.53616.693
5511.27316.182
5611.02415.573
5710.73215.218
5810.45914.863
5910.23514.478
6010.00213.979
619.78513.490
629.55213.138
639.34712.813
649.13812.419
658.91712.116
668.76711.810
678.56111.527
688.36911.162
698.15610.792
707.99810.529
717.83110.174
727.6029.893
737.4049.567
747.2159.280
757.0478.965
766.8778.687
776.6668.387
786.4888.114
796.2477.856
806.0867.521
815.9007.211
825.7596.920
835.5586.594
845.3756.325
855.1106.094
864.8385.787
874.6835.475
884.4755.228
894.2674.934
904.0464.613
913.7464.318
923.5053.975
933.2883.615
943.0173.187
952.6042.886
962.3312.546
971.9872.060
981.6121.651
990.9691.186


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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