Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.37942.604
2019.19227.642
3014.77120.682
4011.75715.678
509.62312.226
607.7839.266
706.2237.066
804.6345.070
903.1043.043

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
160.202123.711
247.25388.487
341.54977.428
437.55269.431
534.08263.833
631.99757.045
730.29552.635
828.71848.750
927.36045.151
1026.37942.604
1125.06140.586
1224.16138.461
1323.43736.895
1422.76735.361
1522.04533.749
1621.35332.524
1720.85231.106
1820.29129.714
1919.77828.540
2019.19227.642
2118.56626.790
2218.08225.828
2317.49225.223
2417.03024.303
2516.58623.752
2616.20223.280
2715.73222.551
2815.35021.987
2915.00721.374
3014.77120.682
3114.50820.076
3214.17119.449
3313.78718.975
3413.44718.535
3513.15017.898
3612.87317.421
3712.56316.937
3812.29316.503
3912.06116.141
4011.75715.678
4111.52715.235
4211.34314.918
4311.12714.643
4410.90914.282
4510.71413.960
4610.50213.595
4710.25613.283
4810.04512.869
499.80812.554
509.62312.226
519.40611.931
529.23811.644
539.04011.296
548.86510.987
558.67010.649
568.49510.281
578.31610.057
588.1379.830
597.9469.591
607.7839.266
617.6118.963
627.3958.742
637.2138.533
647.0378.286
656.8568.092
666.7187.895
676.5897.712
686.4487.476
696.3377.237
706.2237.066
716.0636.834
725.9106.650
735.7476.435
745.6306.246
755.4696.037
765.2845.852
775.0865.653
784.9435.470
794.7905.296
804.6345.070
814.4764.859
824.3294.660
834.2004.437
844.0364.251
853.8994.091
863.7613.877
873.6133.658
883.4573.482
893.2793.274
903.1043.043
912.9502.830
922.7202.579
932.5342.314
942.3211.994
952.0971.765
961.8351.503
971.5181.121
981.2360.792
990.8220.407


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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