Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.37842.604
2014.03527.642
3010.78220.682
408.56215.678
506.88712.226
605.5889.266
704.3767.066
803.2285.070
902.0783.043

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
144.362123.711
235.37488.487
331.27377.428
427.27669.431
525.25363.833
623.73357.045
722.50152.635
821.60748.750
920.32245.151
1019.37842.604
1118.65140.586
1217.87838.461
1317.33136.895
1416.78535.361
1516.36933.749
1615.79532.524
1715.37131.106
1814.95029.714
1914.51828.540
2014.03527.642
2113.65326.790
2213.26325.828
2312.91125.223
2412.57124.303
2512.14523.752
2611.84223.280
2711.51822.551
2811.26921.987
2911.03521.374
3010.78220.682
3110.55520.076
3210.33019.449
3310.08218.975
349.81118.535
359.51517.898
369.24917.421
379.07216.937
388.90216.503
398.71416.141
408.56215.678
418.38515.235
428.20114.918
438.04114.643
447.92714.282
457.77013.960
467.60113.595
477.44213.283
487.26612.869
497.10312.554
506.88712.226
516.75711.931
526.63611.644
536.47311.296
546.31210.987
556.15510.649
566.03510.281
575.94510.057
585.8409.830
595.7029.591
605.5889.266
615.4328.963
625.2598.742
635.1138.533
644.9998.286
654.8818.092
664.7837.895
674.6867.712
684.5947.476
694.4877.237
704.3767.066
714.2766.834
724.1576.650
734.0606.435
743.9196.246
753.8166.037
763.7025.852
773.5685.653
783.4545.470
793.3525.296
803.2285.070
813.1024.859
822.9984.660
832.8914.437
842.7954.251
852.6704.091
862.5553.877
872.4483.658
882.3343.482
892.2243.274
902.0783.043
911.9232.830
921.7962.579
931.6562.314
941.4911.994
951.3291.765
961.1271.503
970.9671.121
980.6800.792
990.4090.407


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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