Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.15826.610
2012.20917.098
309.93012.717
408.3339.579
507.0677.430
605.9575.600
704.9564.236
803.9893.013
902.8201.781

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.41379.378
226.77456.197
323.87749.044
422.14543.831
520.71640.317
619.40735.869
718.25533.020
817.53630.544
916.73028.240
1016.15826.610
1115.63525.318
1215.17323.953
1314.72522.957
1414.26021.993
1513.81420.969
1613.45120.183
1713.10819.294
1812.78818.417
1912.48617.671
2012.20917.098
2112.00116.557
2211.77915.969
2311.50315.567
2411.27814.993
2511.02714.640
2610.82914.341
2710.61213.894
2810.39613.545
2910.14213.147
309.93012.717
319.76512.332
329.60211.949
339.45611.651
349.27011.362
359.11510.972
368.94110.667
378.78410.367
388.65710.091
398.5039.868
408.3339.579
418.1739.304
428.0169.103
437.9028.936
447.7678.708
457.6408.507
467.5218.284
477.4168.084
487.2997.827
497.1967.635
507.0677.430
516.9387.246
526.7817.065
536.6896.855
546.5946.657
556.4896.459
566.3976.222
576.2906.084
586.1815.945
596.0805.795
605.9575.600
615.8495.409
625.7405.270
635.6425.142
645.5464.987
655.4514.867
665.3384.746
675.2684.634
685.1374.489
695.0344.341
704.9564.236
714.8524.094
724.7723.981
734.6833.849
744.5813.733
754.4973.605
764.4093.492
774.3073.370
784.1853.258
794.0853.151
803.9893.013
813.8832.885
823.7532.764
833.6582.627
843.5552.514
853.4662.416
863.3552.286
873.2332.153
883.1032.047
892.9491.920
902.8201.781
912.6941.651
922.6101.500
932.4841.340
942.3201.147
952.1151.010
961.9260.852
971.7120.624
981.4480.427
991.1250.198


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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