Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.33316.495
201.60410.637
301.2057.823
400.9335.803
500.7184.437
600.5583.296
700.4092.465
800.2781.741
900.1271.038

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.54539.138
24.38031.021
33.85228.011
43.47225.631
53.18823.930
62.97721.659
72.76120.133
82.59918.762
92.43417.447
102.33316.495
112.23115.729
122.12014.908
132.05314.303
141.96713.711
151.88613.077
161.82612.587
171.74812.029
181.69811.476
191.65211.002
201.60410.637
211.56510.292
221.5049.916
231.4619.657
241.4159.289
251.3819.062
261.3388.870
271.2978.581
281.2638.356
291.2348.100
301.2057.823
311.1757.574
321.1517.327
331.1197.135
341.0856.949
351.0576.698
361.0356.501
371.0096.309
380.9826.132
390.9595.989
400.9335.803
410.9135.627
420.8805.499
430.8615.392
440.8375.247
450.8195.119
460.7984.977
470.7804.850
480.7594.687
490.7384.566
500.7184.437
510.6984.321
520.6804.207
530.6624.075
540.6473.952
550.6333.828
560.6173.680
570.6033.595
580.5903.509
590.5733.416
600.5583.296
610.5433.178
620.5283.093
630.5143.014
640.4962.920
650.4852.847
660.4702.773
670.4532.705
680.4392.617
690.4232.528
700.4092.465
710.3972.379
720.3852.312
730.3712.233
740.3592.164
750.3472.088
760.3352.021
770.3221.949
780.3071.884
790.2941.821
800.2781.741
810.2671.666
820.2521.596
830.2351.517
840.2231.452
850.2081.396
860.1921.322
870.1761.247
880.1591.187
890.1421.116
900.1271.038
910.1090.966
920.0910.883
930.0710.796
940.0490.691
950.0230.618
960.0000.534
970.0000.415
980.0000.315
990.0000.200


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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