Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.28254.364
205.33035.304
303.81626.389
402.87720.015
502.21715.680
601.64112.026
701.1649.333
800.6796.952
900.1584.596

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.072140.511
216.098107.163
313.83295.475
412.40486.512
511.44580.260
610.59272.110
79.93266.755
89.30162.024
98.76857.557
108.28254.364
117.81551.816
127.41249.106
137.07647.121
146.81245.190
156.47243.134
166.24941.550
176.02739.754
185.74837.981
195.52636.467
205.33035.304
215.10534.205
224.92133.010
234.78532.191
244.62231.023
254.50230.305
264.33629.696
274.23428.785
284.09228.075
293.92527.264
303.81626.389
313.69225.606
323.58224.825
333.47324.220
343.36523.632
353.28622.841
363.19922.220
373.12321.611
383.04221.053
392.95620.600
402.87720.015
412.80019.458
422.74519.052
432.67218.713
442.60818.254
452.54417.847
462.48117.397
472.42416.995
482.36116.477
492.29816.091
502.21715.680
512.16315.311
522.11014.947
532.02414.527
541.96814.131
551.92013.735
561.86913.262
571.80212.987
581.76112.711
591.69512.413
601.64112.026
611.59211.645
621.54111.371
631.49511.118
641.45510.811
651.40610.575
661.37310.335
671.32510.114
681.2749.829
691.2129.539
701.1649.333
711.1159.054
721.0628.832
731.0108.576
740.9708.349
750.9208.100
760.8707.880
770.8217.642
780.7797.425
790.7287.219
800.6796.952
810.6176.704
820.5666.470
830.5166.208
840.4695.991
850.4285.804
860.3885.556
870.3435.302
880.2945.100
890.2234.860
900.1584.596
910.1014.352
920.0324.067
930.0003.768
940.0003.408
950.0003.153
960.0002.862
970.0002.444
980.0002.087
990.0001.675


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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