Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1079.02661.917
2062.39442.620
3052.28132.755
4044.19425.358
5037.22320.165
6031.54715.684
7026.60112.319
8021.2739.295
9014.8706.250

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1135.639129.180
2118.127105.764
3105.51396.954
498.13489.914
593.40684.832
690.21077.968
787.75173.295
884.16569.048
981.37064.930
1079.02661.917
1176.73359.470
1274.18256.825
1372.72454.859
1470.97652.922
1569.08350.833
1667.71649.205
1766.30047.338
1864.91445.475
1963.67743.866
2062.39442.620
2161.23341.434
2260.12340.134
2359.04839.238
2457.99437.952
2557.06637.157
2656.15536.480
2755.13035.461
2854.33834.663
2953.38733.747
3052.28132.755
3151.32931.861
3250.58630.966
3349.75830.269
3448.94929.591
3548.24528.673
3647.29227.949
3746.66727.237
3845.96126.582
3945.23426.050
4044.19425.358
4143.38624.699
4242.66924.216
4341.89223.813
4441.22823.265
4540.41022.777
4639.78822.238
4739.01921.754
4838.37221.130
4937.84120.663
5037.22320.165
5136.70019.717
5236.16319.274
5335.69718.761
5435.06018.277
5534.48417.791
5633.91117.211
5733.21416.872
5832.64716.532
5932.17816.163
6031.54715.684
6130.98215.212
6230.66414.871
6330.08614.556
6429.51614.173
6528.93713.877
6628.44213.578
6727.91413.301
6827.45512.943
6927.02612.578
7026.60112.319
7126.10911.967
7225.63211.687
7324.99811.363
7424.48611.075
7523.91010.759
7623.29410.479
7722.64010.177
7822.2049.900
7921.7379.637
8021.2739.295
8120.7108.977
8220.2348.678
8319.6028.340
8419.0288.061
8518.1417.820
8617.5797.498
8716.9667.170
8816.2496.907
8915.7486.595
9014.8706.250
9114.2315.932
9213.5085.559
9312.8555.165
9411.8664.690
9510.9924.353
9610.0403.967
979.0293.407
987.8612.928
995.7722.370


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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