Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.47269.589
2019.42349.542
3015.56538.359
4012.81729.580
5010.67623.274
608.80317.799
707.08513.708
805.40110.084
903.5976.525

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
153.068128.291
243.568109.005
338.957101.527
436.10495.427
533.46190.943
631.91584.761
730.28180.457
828.79876.469
927.25272.526
1026.47269.589
1125.41667.169
1224.67164.516
1323.92862.518
1423.37060.528
1522.60358.356
1621.92256.644
1721.27354.660
1820.62152.656
1919.93850.908
2019.42349.542
2118.89448.232
2218.48046.786
2317.98145.782
2417.64044.331
2517.26343.429
2616.90042.657
2716.57741.491
2816.29940.572
2915.93839.513
3015.56538.359
3115.23837.314
3214.87436.264
3314.57835.443
3414.30634.640
3514.03633.550
3613.74832.688
3713.49831.837
3813.27931.052
3913.04230.412
4012.81729.580
4112.54328.784
4212.30128.201
4312.08727.713
4411.85027.048
4511.62226.456
4611.41025.801
4711.20425.212
4811.00324.451
4910.84323.883
5010.67623.274
5110.47822.727
5210.28722.186
5310.11821.559
549.91120.967
559.74120.374
569.58819.664
579.41119.250
589.19818.835
599.02518.384
608.80317.799
618.59117.223
628.41116.807
638.26916.423
648.11815.957
657.94815.598
667.75715.234
677.60814.897
687.41414.463
697.27614.022
707.08513.708
716.93813.283
726.78112.946
736.61712.555
746.44912.209
756.29811.830
766.13511.495
775.94111.133
785.78310.803
795.58010.490
805.40110.084
815.2439.707
825.0199.353
834.8988.956
844.7308.627
854.5358.345
864.3857.969
874.2237.587
884.0407.283
893.8406.922
903.5976.525
913.4246.161
923.2065.736
932.9825.291
942.6874.758
952.4724.382
962.1903.956
971.8483.346
981.4322.831
990.8232.242


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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