Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek



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Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.84314.977
203.4279.171
302.6346.614
402.0714.851
501.6633.681
601.3202.714
701.0232.023
800.7271.420
900.4190.839

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
111.91649.954
29.31534.329
37.81429.521
46.93726.089
56.32123.715
65.96020.870
75.63319.046
85.37517.456
95.09215.999
104.84314.977
114.62414.174
124.46713.334
134.30012.719
144.12812.121
153.95911.496
163.83811.024
173.71710.482
183.6299.952
193.5139.508
203.4279.171
213.3228.852
223.2458.494
233.1498.270
243.0537.930
252.9997.728
262.9187.555
272.8277.290
282.7587.085
292.6986.863
302.6346.614
312.5636.396
322.4906.173
332.4346.004
342.3725.848
352.3205.624
362.2735.457
372.2245.287
382.1735.136
392.1205.011
402.0714.851
412.0284.698
421.9824.589
431.9354.496
441.9004.373
451.8614.263
461.8234.140
471.7824.034
481.7443.895
491.7053.790
501.6633.681
511.6253.583
521.5863.488
531.5503.373
541.5113.272
551.4783.161
561.4503.041
571.4162.969
581.3852.895
591.3532.819
601.3202.714
611.2892.618
621.2562.547
631.2282.481
641.1962.403
651.1632.342
661.1372.280
671.1072.223
681.0792.150
691.0542.076
701.0232.023
710.9951.952
720.9661.895
730.9331.830
740.9031.772
750.8711.709
760.8451.654
770.8131.594
780.7941.539
790.7621.487
800.7271.420
810.7001.359
820.6731.300
830.6441.235
840.6161.181
850.5851.135
860.5541.074
870.5191.012
880.4880.962
890.4460.904
900.4190.839
910.3790.780
920.3460.712
930.3090.640
940.2590.554
950.2210.494
960.1650.425
970.1060.328
980.0230.245
990.0000.152


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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