Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek



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Exceedance probability for Tambo River at Swifts Creek ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1038.14654.364
2028.20835.304
3022.16726.389
4017.99620.015
5014.62815.680
6011.87712.026
709.5639.333
807.2656.952
904.8824.596

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
177.395140.511
264.292107.163
358.38495.475
452.82486.512
549.66280.260
646.78972.110
744.10666.755
842.19762.024
940.01157.557
1038.14654.364
1136.84551.816
1235.69749.106
1334.65147.121
1433.20545.190
1532.21243.134
1631.31741.550
1730.52439.754
1829.91337.981
1928.90936.467
2028.20835.304
2127.36134.205
2226.65433.010
2326.05432.191
2425.46031.023
2524.74130.305
2624.19129.696
2723.65028.785
2823.10428.075
2922.57927.264
3022.16726.389
3121.65025.606
3221.30124.825
3320.81924.220
3420.39823.632
3520.01722.841
3619.55122.220
3719.17121.611
3818.81721.053
3918.31720.600
4017.99620.015
4117.55719.458
4217.07919.052
4316.70718.713
4416.35018.254
4516.00517.847
4615.79317.397
4715.46616.995
4815.16116.477
4914.87816.091
5014.62815.680
5114.32415.311
5214.01014.947
5313.73614.527
5413.43414.131
5513.18613.735
5612.89213.262
5712.65212.987
5812.36712.711
5912.09512.413
6011.87712.026
6111.64411.645
6211.36611.371
6311.13911.118
6410.93510.811
6510.75110.575
6610.50810.335
6710.29510.114
6810.0809.829
699.8409.539
709.5639.333
719.3589.054
729.1468.832
738.9318.576
748.7458.349
758.5318.100
768.2427.880
778.0287.642
787.7487.425
797.4277.219
807.2656.952
817.0876.704
826.8216.470
836.6076.208
846.3405.991
856.1165.804
865.8635.556
875.6335.302
885.4245.100
895.1724.860
904.8824.596
914.5244.352
924.2414.067
933.9613.768
943.6813.408
953.3383.153
963.0562.862
972.6762.444
982.2912.087
991.5321.675


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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