Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek( Sep 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile13.14011.831
Median21.12023.274
Mean25.36231.778
75% Quartile32.83143.429
Interquartile Range19.69131.598

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
185.899128.291
271.978109.005
366.914101.527
461.94795.427
558.91690.943
655.97484.761
753.60880.457
851.16276.469
949.07172.526
1047.68469.589
1146.41267.169
1244.97064.516
1343.67662.518
1442.54660.528
1541.68358.356
1640.34056.644
1739.23454.660
1838.14552.656
1937.28850.908
2036.38449.542
2135.55448.232
2234.84846.786
2334.15045.782
2433.54144.331
2532.83343.429
2632.11142.657
2731.50441.491
2831.04140.572
2930.62539.513
3029.94138.359
3129.44537.314
3228.80836.264
3328.29635.443
3427.74434.640
3527.26633.550
3626.86132.688
3726.37931.837
3825.80531.052
3925.32030.412
4024.83229.580
4124.39328.784
4224.00528.201
4323.61127.713
4423.16727.048
4522.85326.456
4622.52225.801
4722.10125.212
4821.74724.451
4921.45023.883
5021.12023.274
5120.78822.727
5220.53022.186
5320.16321.559
5419.75220.967
5519.42020.374
5619.10919.664
5718.78519.250
5818.47118.835
5918.16518.384
6017.82617.799
6117.52517.223
6217.24716.807
6316.93416.423
6416.66815.957
6516.38915.598
6615.98915.234
6715.64514.897
6815.32514.463
6915.00114.022
7014.64113.708
7114.34313.283
7214.08812.946
7313.82012.555
7413.47712.209
7513.13611.830
7612.85911.495
7712.57411.133
7812.26810.803
7911.95710.490
8011.67910.084
8111.3129.707
8210.9829.353
8310.6378.956
8410.3438.627
859.9748.345
869.6577.969
879.3067.587
888.9187.283
898.6516.922
908.2216.525
917.8756.161
927.4975.736
937.0155.291
946.4944.758
956.0124.382
965.4523.956
974.8983.346
984.3472.831
993.4872.242


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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