Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


Return to catchment list
Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile15.42411.898
Median24.82522.866
Mean30.20632.005
75% Quartile40.04342.645
Interquartile Range24.61930.748

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1102.256138.499
287.772115.489
379.975106.677
473.93099.553
569.58894.358
666.81787.263
764.01082.376
861.48277.889
959.13773.496
1057.03670.254
1155.56767.603
1253.79464.718
1352.25962.561
1450.91560.425
1549.60158.110
1648.27056.297
1747.32954.208
1846.32452.112
1945.27550.296
2044.36648.885
2143.42947.537
2242.61046.056
2341.70345.032
2440.82143.558
2540.05242.646
2639.17441.867
2738.36440.694
2837.50239.773
2936.64638.715
3036.06137.566
3135.23736.530
3234.54535.491
3333.94434.680
3433.25233.890
3532.75932.820
3632.21831.977
3731.65231.146
3831.06230.380
3930.38929.758
4029.84728.949
4129.36728.178
4228.74627.612
4328.31327.140
4427.81626.499
4527.27825.927
4626.64125.295
4726.12924.728
4825.66723.997
4925.24923.450
5024.82522.866
5124.43222.341
5223.98621.822
5323.55821.221
5423.19820.654
5522.78420.086
5622.39819.406
5722.04519.010
5821.69718.612
5921.28418.181
6020.83917.621
6120.48917.070
6220.16716.673
6319.82516.305
6419.46115.859
6519.05815.515
6618.72815.166
6718.37114.844
6818.00214.427
6917.58514.004
7017.17313.703
7116.80513.295
7216.43912.971
7316.10812.595
7415.78112.262
7515.42311.897
7615.02411.574
7714.66311.226
7814.24210.907
7913.77210.604
8013.33410.211
8112.9849.847
8212.6469.503
8312.3059.117
8411.9148.797
8511.5328.523
8611.1608.156
8710.8087.783
8810.3587.485
899.9467.131
909.5036.741
919.0676.382
928.5575.962
938.0955.521
947.6424.990
956.9704.615
966.3194.187
975.6823.571
985.0403.046
993.8102.441


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence