Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile15.24811.831
Median24.12323.274
Mean28.88731.778
75% Quartile37.44443.429
Interquartile Range22.19631.598

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
194.320128.291
281.120109.005
375.147101.527
470.42495.427
566.30190.943
663.10484.761
760.46980.457
858.00776.469
955.75572.526
1053.82869.589
1152.22767.169
1250.63164.516
1349.23262.518
1447.89460.528
1546.71958.356
1645.63156.644
1744.58054.660
1843.71252.656
1942.42850.908
2041.40849.542
2140.54148.232
2239.57246.786
2338.74445.782
2438.11944.331
2537.44943.429
2636.75642.657
2736.18941.491
2835.51940.572
2934.86439.513
3034.21038.359
3133.67037.314
3233.10836.264
3332.54235.443
3431.94934.640
3531.34833.550
3630.67832.688
3730.15731.837
3829.72831.052
3929.17030.412
4028.53629.580
4127.96728.784
4227.53228.201
4327.00927.713
4426.54727.048
4526.12826.456
4625.74625.801
4725.29725.212
4824.86824.451
4924.50023.883
5024.12323.274
5123.77222.727
5223.46522.186
5323.04221.559
5422.70720.967
5522.36320.374
5622.00519.664
5721.59819.250
5821.22718.835
5920.80518.384
6020.46317.799
6120.08717.223
6219.80016.807
6319.51216.423
6419.16315.957
6518.87115.598
6618.50515.234
6718.03614.897
6817.67014.463
6917.30514.022
7016.94313.708
7116.58513.283
7216.26312.946
7315.92612.555
7415.59912.209
7515.24611.830
7614.85311.495
7714.48811.133
7814.10210.803
7913.75110.490
8013.41010.084
8113.0619.707
8212.7229.353
8312.2698.956
8411.9008.627
8511.5448.345
8611.2247.969
8710.8417.587
8810.3897.283
8910.0466.922
909.6446.525
919.1986.161
928.8055.736
938.2845.291
947.6044.758
957.0414.382
966.5053.956
975.8313.346
985.1652.831
994.2082.242


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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