Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.8102.088
Median3.0694.437
Mean4.0777.076
75% Quartile5.2179.062
Interquartile Range3.4076.974

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
117.15839.138
214.31531.021
312.43928.011
411.42725.631
510.74223.930
610.04521.659
79.36920.133
88.84518.762
98.49817.447
108.19616.495
117.90115.729
127.52814.908
137.26814.303
147.01713.711
156.74513.077
166.55812.587
176.37112.029
186.18711.476
196.05711.002
205.91710.637
215.76810.292
225.6209.916
235.4879.657
245.3209.289
255.2199.062
265.1328.870
275.0218.581
284.9038.356
294.7988.100
304.7087.823
314.5947.574
324.4787.327
334.3767.135
344.3026.949
354.2276.698
364.1076.501
374.0386.309
383.9406.132
393.8425.989
403.7765.803
413.6875.627
423.6165.499
433.5435.392
443.4605.247
453.3975.119
463.3194.977
473.2654.850
483.1894.687
493.1204.566
503.0694.437
513.0064.321
522.9494.207
532.8984.075
542.8583.952
552.8083.828
562.7723.680
572.7173.595
582.6763.509
592.6253.416
602.5693.296
612.5113.178
622.4543.093
632.4053.014
642.3682.920
652.3132.847
662.2592.773
672.2072.705
682.1632.617
692.1162.528
702.0652.465
712.0242.379
721.9522.312
731.9032.233
741.8612.164
751.8102.088
761.7632.021
771.7211.949
781.6601.884
791.6141.821
801.5561.741
811.5111.666
821.4661.596
831.4151.517
841.3741.452
851.3211.396
861.2701.322
871.2211.247
881.1631.187
891.0991.116
901.0491.038
910.9960.966
920.9410.883
930.8830.796
940.8180.691
950.7260.618
960.6530.534
970.5740.415
980.4610.315
990.3080.200


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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