Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.2712.213
Median3.7844.523
Mean5.0588.035
75% Quartile6.4059.293
Interquartile Range4.1347.081

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
122.58360.036
217.93041.093
315.96335.302
414.21931.181
512.99728.335
612.00724.931
711.30522.751
810.91920.854
910.43219.117
1010.00917.900
119.62516.944
129.31815.945
138.97815.214
148.67214.503
158.37113.762
168.09713.201
177.91112.557
187.66011.930
197.43911.404
207.24211.004
216.99610.627
226.83710.202
236.7099.937
246.5489.536
256.4059.296
266.2639.092
276.1208.778
285.9768.535
295.8548.273
305.7307.979
315.5907.722
325.4577.458
335.3347.260
345.2357.076
355.1336.811
365.0096.613
374.9186.414
384.8186.236
394.7486.088
404.6475.900
414.5325.720
424.4595.592
434.3625.481
444.2885.337
454.1965.208
464.1025.062
474.0124.939
483.9414.775
493.8614.651
503.7844.523
513.7244.408
523.6384.296
533.5754.161
543.5114.042
553.4553.913
563.3943.772
573.3343.687
583.2783.601
593.1943.511
603.1333.389
613.0663.275
623.0033.193
632.9433.115
642.8863.024
652.8202.953
662.7612.880
672.7172.814
682.6622.728
692.5972.641
702.5552.579
712.5042.496
722.4472.430
732.3862.354
742.3192.286
752.2702.212
762.2112.148
772.1402.078
782.0862.014
792.0291.953
801.9531.875
811.8901.803
821.8311.735
831.7701.659
841.7251.597
851.6561.543
861.5791.472
871.5031.399
881.4381.342
891.3811.274
901.3111.199
911.2321.130
921.1601.051
931.0820.967
941.0010.868
950.9140.798
960.8330.719
970.7410.606
980.5950.511
990.4500.403


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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