Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.7283.536
Median3.2967.248
Mean5.22912.958
75% Quartile6.45514.935
Interquartile Range4.72711.399

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
130.90297.823
223.93266.617
319.43257.148
417.38550.426
515.88545.791
614.59740.257
713.18436.718
812.26533.639
911.71330.822
1011.09728.850
1110.47327.302
1210.03825.685
139.61424.503
149.27223.353
158.94222.153
168.61021.247
178.28620.207
188.03619.192
197.78818.343
207.52517.697
217.24717.087
227.00716.402
236.84115.974
246.64715.326
256.45714.940
266.24214.610
276.05814.103
285.91813.712
295.74113.290
305.57012.815
315.42212.401
325.27011.976
335.14711.655
345.02111.359
354.86310.932
364.74110.614
374.59410.293
384.50610.006
394.4069.767
404.2999.464
414.1809.175
424.0638.968
433.9618.791
443.8558.558
453.7668.350
463.6538.116
473.5597.917
483.4647.654
493.3857.455
503.2967.248
513.2317.063
523.1536.884
533.0486.667
542.9656.476
552.8976.267
562.8296.041
572.7665.904
582.7005.766
592.6255.621
602.5725.425
612.5165.243
622.4585.110
632.3884.985
642.3314.839
652.2574.724
662.2044.608
672.1504.501
682.1124.363
692.0544.223
701.9974.124
711.9333.991
721.8873.885
731.8343.762
741.7853.654
751.7263.536
761.6713.432
771.6203.320
781.5573.217
791.5033.121
801.4432.996
811.3812.880
821.3212.771
831.2572.649
841.1952.549
851.1532.463
861.0822.349
871.0302.232
880.9722.140
890.9232.031
900.8571.912
910.8041.802
920.7351.674
930.6721.541
940.6041.382
950.5281.270
960.4661.144
970.3770.964
980.2840.812
990.0960.640


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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