Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


Return to catchment list
Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.4855.467
Median12.05810.952
Mean17.13818.840
75% Quartile21.59922.048
Interquartile Range15.11416.580

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
184.213134.817
269.28393.365
360.92180.576
454.60571.432
549.43165.096
645.15457.492
742.38052.605
839.59048.340
937.76844.424
1035.81941.675
1134.48939.512
1233.12637.247
1331.96535.589
1430.41933.973
1529.38632.284
1628.27531.007
1727.52429.536
1826.59528.101
1925.79226.897
2024.89825.981
2124.25625.114
2223.46524.140
2322.76823.529
2422.18122.605
2521.60322.054
2621.03621.582
2720.48620.858
2819.86020.298
2919.25219.692
3018.81819.011
3118.45718.417
3218.07217.805
3317.65517.344
3417.24916.917
3516.80316.302
3616.37215.842
3715.98615.378
3815.61114.963
3915.23314.618
4014.90214.178
4114.57613.759
4214.34313.459
4314.07013.201
4413.79212.862
4513.44212.560
4613.13712.219
4712.87211.929
4812.55011.545
4912.32111.254
5012.05810.952
5111.81410.681
5211.52710.418
5311.23210.100
5411.0339.820
5510.7419.514
5610.4729.181
5710.2368.980
5810.0428.776
599.7738.563
609.5478.273
619.2788.004
629.1087.808
638.8577.624
648.6517.407
658.4647.236
668.2027.064
678.0186.905
687.7796.700
697.5996.493
707.4256.345
717.2606.146
727.0915.988
736.8955.805
746.6675.644
756.4825.467
766.2815.311
776.1305.143
785.8784.989
795.6914.844
805.4744.656
815.2114.482
825.0574.318
834.8604.134
844.6193.982
854.4483.852
864.2583.679
874.0843.503
883.9373.363
893.7603.196
903.5583.014
913.3372.847
923.0912.651
932.8042.447
942.5282.202
952.2832.029
962.0181.834
971.6541.553
981.3351.316
990.9051.045


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence