Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile7.2238.100
Median12.47915.680
Mean16.51124.476
75% Quartile21.35230.305
Interquartile Range14.12922.205

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
169.598140.511
257.457107.163
351.81095.475
446.70786.512
543.67680.260
641.19472.110
738.59966.755
836.84362.024
934.87057.557
1033.46354.364
1132.07651.816
1231.14849.106
1330.07247.121
1428.95245.190
1527.98443.134
1627.17241.550
1726.47339.754
1825.86237.981
1925.23536.467
2024.31635.304
2123.70834.205
2223.01833.010
2322.49732.191
2421.95731.023
2521.35430.305
2620.79929.696
2720.39228.785
2819.88828.075
2919.46027.264
3019.02826.389
3118.68825.606
3218.35624.825
3317.94224.220
3417.57323.632
3517.20122.841
3616.80522.220
3716.44321.611
3816.07321.053
3915.67520.600
4015.38420.015
4115.07119.458
4214.67619.052
4314.29118.713
4413.99718.254
4513.72917.847
4613.50817.397
4713.24116.995
4812.98516.477
4912.69116.091
5012.47915.680
5112.26115.311
5211.95414.947
5311.70314.527
5411.47414.131
5511.26613.735
5611.01613.262
5710.79912.987
5810.57212.711
5910.35012.413
6010.10812.026
619.92111.645
629.66111.371
639.47911.118
649.28010.811
659.13810.575
668.94410.335
678.75710.114
688.5369.829
698.3699.539
708.1379.333
717.9419.054
727.7778.832
737.6028.576
747.4008.349
757.2238.100
767.0017.880
776.7767.642
786.5347.425
796.3217.219
806.1396.952
815.9726.704
825.7766.470
835.5266.208
845.3325.991
855.1385.804
864.9445.556
874.7435.302
884.5195.100
894.3084.860
904.0634.596
913.7674.352
923.5034.067
933.2973.768
943.0023.408
952.7903.153
962.5192.862
972.1792.444
981.8482.087
991.1891.675


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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