Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile9.00811.898
Median15.25822.866
Mean19.22332.005
75% Quartile25.28442.645
Interquartile Range16.27630.748

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
174.489138.499
263.242115.489
355.694106.677
450.48599.553
546.73894.358
644.12287.263
742.27482.376
840.27777.889
938.72473.496
1037.60170.254
1136.48567.603
1235.43964.718
1334.33962.561
1433.43460.425
1532.56058.110
1631.59756.297
1730.66954.208
1829.77652.112
1928.94550.296
2028.15648.885
2127.52847.537
2226.85546.056
2326.30945.032
2425.82443.558
2525.28642.646
2624.59641.867
2724.05540.694
2823.57439.773
2923.16938.715
3022.69437.566
3122.18136.530
3221.72235.491
3321.23734.680
3420.83233.890
3520.45132.820
3619.98631.977
3719.59631.146
3819.17730.380
3918.81729.758
4018.49228.949
4118.08428.178
4217.75527.612
4317.36927.140
4416.98626.499
4516.59725.927
4616.33925.295
4716.06624.728
4815.77523.997
4915.51023.450
5015.25822.866
5114.94922.341
5214.72321.822
5314.44921.221
5414.08420.654
5513.85920.086
5613.60219.406
5713.34119.010
5813.10918.612
5912.90918.181
6012.68017.621
6112.48717.070
6212.21616.673
6311.98016.305
6411.67015.859
6511.42915.515
6611.20415.166
6710.98414.844
6810.74314.427
6910.53214.004
7010.26613.703
7110.03413.295
729.76512.971
739.47612.595
749.23612.262
759.00711.897
768.77511.574
778.56911.226
788.31410.907
798.10710.604
807.86610.211
817.5979.847
827.3359.503
837.1319.117
846.9078.797
856.6618.523
866.4028.156
876.1397.783
885.8917.485
895.6937.131
905.4606.741
915.2146.382
924.9135.962
934.6315.521
944.2354.990
953.9124.615
963.5904.187
973.1493.571
982.6933.046
991.9552.441


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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