Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Product list for Tambo River at Swifts Creek


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Probability distribution for Tambo River at Swifts Creek(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile15.90711.831
Median25.38523.274
Mean30.01931.778
75% Quartile38.96443.429
Interquartile Range23.05831.598

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
198.247128.291
283.223109.005
376.653101.527
472.13395.427
568.48490.943
664.92984.761
762.20880.457
859.75676.469
957.33372.526
1055.82369.589
1154.39567.169
1252.86464.516
1351.51362.518
1450.31660.528
1548.86358.356
1647.61056.644
1746.23754.660
1844.99352.656
1944.03650.908
2043.09749.542
2142.29848.232
2241.50946.786
2340.69645.782
2439.83444.331
2538.96843.429
2638.14342.657
2737.21641.491
2836.69140.572
2936.11039.513
3035.46838.359
3134.94837.314
3234.14536.264
3333.61635.443
3433.01934.640
3532.44133.550
3631.80632.688
3731.24431.837
3830.62531.052
3930.21830.412
4029.72129.580
4129.26628.784
4228.78428.201
4328.29027.713
4427.78427.048
4527.39826.456
4626.98725.801
4726.57925.212
4826.12824.451
4925.76323.883
5025.38523.274
5124.99022.727
5224.64822.186
5324.22121.559
5423.72320.967
5523.27320.374
5622.90319.664
5722.56119.250
5822.19618.835
5921.85718.384
6021.39217.799
6121.07917.223
6220.74916.807
6320.40816.423
6420.06815.957
6519.67115.598
6619.23315.234
6718.74714.897
6818.36114.463
6918.06514.022
7017.72313.708
7117.35213.283
7216.96612.946
7316.65712.555
7416.30712.209
7515.90711.830
7615.55711.495
7715.25711.133
7814.83610.803
7914.47010.490
8014.14510.084
8113.7929.707
8213.3849.353
8312.9588.956
8412.5268.627
8512.1438.345
8611.8027.969
8711.3497.587
8811.0197.283
8910.5736.922
9010.1386.525
919.6156.161
929.2275.736
938.6835.291
948.0454.758
957.4094.382
966.6973.956
976.1383.346
985.4452.831
994.2602.242


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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